TABLE 3.
Effect of Deadly Violence on the Likelihood of Taking a First Trip to the United States from Selected Latin American Countries: 1979–2002
| Raw Homicide Rate |
Smoothed Homicide Rate |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | SE | B | SE | |
| Violence indicator | ||||
| Interpolated homicide rate | −0.008*** | 0.003 | — | — |
| Smoothed homicide rate | — | — | −0.006** | 0.003 |
| Political economy | ||||
| GDP relative to U.S. | −0.027**** | 0.007 | −0.026**** | 0.007 |
| Economic openness | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| U.S. Contra involvement | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Demographic status | ||||
| Age | 0.096**** | 0.012 | 0.096**** | 0.024 |
| Age squared | −0.002**** | 0.001 | −0.002**** | 0.001 |
| Minors in household | −0.028* | 0.015 | −0.028* | 0.015 |
| Assets owned | ||||
| Farmland | 0.084 | 0.206 | 0.084 | 0.077 |
| Real estate | −0.218**** | 0.050 | −0.217**** | 0.050 |
| Business | −0.608**** | 0.088 | −0.608**** | 0.088 |
| Human capital | ||||
| Schooling | −0.038**** | 0.006 | −0.038**** | 0.006 |
| Spouse’s schooling | 0.011 | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.007 |
| Social capital | ||||
| Family in U.S. | 0.722**** | 0.024 | 0.722**** | 0.024 |
| Head’s occupation | ||||
| Agriculture | — | — | — | — |
| Unskilled manual | 0.231**** | 0.062 | 0.234**** | 0.237 |
| Skilled manual | 0.010 | 0.057 | 0.010 | 0.062 |
| Unemployed | −0.832**** | 0.097 | −0.831**** | 0.097 |
| Spouse’s labor force status | ||||
| Spouse employed | −0.038 | 0.051 | −0.038 | 0.051 |
| Country | ||||
| Mexico | — | — | — | — |
| Costa Rica | −0.817**** | 0.125 | −0.785**** | 0.128 |
| Guatemala | −0.772**** | 0.161 | −0.774*** | 0.164 |
| Nicaragua | −1.249**** | 0.123 | −1.254**** | 0.257 |
| Constant | −3.739**** | 0.349 | −3.810**** | 0.358 |
| Chi-square | 2,395.61**** | 2,390.78**** | ||
| Pseudo R-squared | .086**** | .087**** | ||
| Person-years | 233,248 | 233,248 | ||
*
p < .10.
**
p < .05.
***
p < .01.
****
p < .001.