Table 2. AUROC for the Templeton and novel method of predicting live birth with IVF.

Model	AUROC (95% Confidence Interval)	p-Value Comparing Models
Templeton	0.6184 (0.6152–0.6217)	ref
Novel model	0.6335 (0.6202–0.6367)	<0.001

N = 144,018 analysis cohort with complete data on all variables included in any model. Templeton: As in reference [7], to date the only externally validated prediction model. Novel model: using the same variables as Templeton but allowing them to have different multivariable coefficients to those originally derived by Templeton and including terms for all causes of infertility (rather than just tubal versus other, as in the original Templeton) and four additional predictors: type of hormonal preparation, whether egg came from patient or donor, number of treatment cycles, and whether ICSI was used with the IVF.