Table 2.
Discrimination and calibration of the UKPDS risk engine for calculated risk periods of 4, 5, 6 and 8 years, with CHD as outcome
| Calculated risk period (years) | First analysis | Second analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases/n | c-statistic (95% CI) | χ2 statistic | Cases/n | c-statistic (95% CI) | χ2 statistic | |
| 4 | 48/1,508 | 0.65 (0.49–0.82) | 44.6 (p < 0.001) | 48/1,622 | 0.65 (0.48–0.81) | 53.2 (p < 0.001) |
| 5 | 55/1,476 | 0.66 (0.51–0.81) | 61.9 (p < 0.001) | 55/1,622 | 0.65 (0.50–0.80) | 77.4 (p < 0.001) |
| 6 | 63/1,438 | 0.66 (0.52–0.80) | 78.5 (p < 0.001) | 63/1,622 | 0.65 (0.51–0.79) | 104.1 (p < 0.001) |
| 8 | 80/1,094 | 0.66 (0.53–0.78) | 71.7 (p < 0.001) | 80/1,622 | 0.65 (0.53–0.77) | 169.8 (p < 0.001) |
First analysis: excluding participants with follow-up shorter than calculated risk period
Second analysis: including participants with follow-up shorter than calculated risk period