TABLE 2.
Linear Mixed-Effects Model Results for Predictors of Injection Drug User Rate per 10 000 Population in 93 Large US Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1992–2002
| Parameters | Model 1,ar (SE) | Model 2,br (SE) | Model 3,cr (SE) |
| Initial status, 1992 | |||
| Intercept | 124.19*** (6.71) | 124.84*** (6.01) | 124.73*** (5.67) |
| Hard drug arrest rate initial values (1991) | 2.52*** (0.53) | 1.59** (0.57) | |
| Unemployment rate initial values (1991) | 8.46** (3.18) | ||
| Congregation rate initial values (1990) | −3.89 (2.26) | ||
| Change, 1992–2002 | |||
| Time | −1.12* (0.46) | −1.33** (0.53) | −1.39** (0.47) |
| Hard drug arrest rate initial values (1991) | −0.08* (0.04) | −0.05 (0.05) | |
| Hard drug arrest rate change (current y minus previous y) | −0.18 (0.40) | −0.15 (0.39) | |
| Unemployment rate initial values (1991) | 0.10 (0.26) | ||
| Unemployment rate change (current y minus previous y) | 1.37** (0.48) | ||
| Congregation rate initial values (1990) | 0.36 (0.19) | ||
a
Unconditional linear growth model with the number of years since 1992 as a predictor.
b
Hard drug arrests added to variables in model 1.
c
Unemployment variables and the congregation rate as controls added to model 2.
*P < .05; **P < .01; ***P < .001.