Fig. 7.

Chironomid-inferred mean July air temperatures (solid line) from the SOS sediment core plotted together with sample-specific standard errors of prediction (SSPE, dashed lines), nearest modern analogues for the fossil samples in the calibration data set, and goodness-of-fit of the fossil samples with temperature. Horizontal dashed lines are used to identify samples with no ‘close’ (2%) and no ‘good’ (5%) modern analogues, and samples with ‘poor’ (0.90) and ‘very poor’ fit (0.95) with temperature.