Table 4.
Expenditure-related characteristics of predicted top user groups identified by five risk adjustment models at three outcome thresholds
| Model 1: Demographics |
Model 2: ACGs & Demographics |
Model 3: ADGs, Sel. EDCs & Demographics |
Model 4: 2002 Expenditures & Demographics |
Model 5: ADGs, Sel. EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome: 2003 top 0.5% user | ||||||
| predicted top 0.5% user group | 2003 average total expenditures | 58,136 | 108,433 | 303,755 | 389,851 | 391,583 |
| 2003 average drug expenditures | 16,706 | 29,255 | 41,282 | 72,792 | 72,189 | |
| Top/bottom total expenditures ratio | 4.1 | 7.7 | 23.1 | 30.7 | 30.7 | |
| Top/bottom drug expenditures ratio | 4.2 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 19.5 | 19.3 | |
| 2003/2002 total expenditures ratio | 1.26 | 0.88 | 1.03 | 0.74 | 0.80 | |
| 2003/2002 drug expenditures ratio | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.84 | |
| Outcome: 2003 top 1% user | ||||||
| predicted top 1% user group | 2003 average total expenditures | 54,520 | 114,802 | 220,395 | 268,398 | 262,609 |
| 2003 average drug expenditures | 16,595 | 29,367 | 35,640 | 59,512 | 56,430 | |
| Top/bottom total expenditures ratio | 3.8 | 8.5 | 17.7 | 22.3 | 21.7 | |
| Top/bottom drug expenditures ratio | 4.2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 16.9 | 15.9 | |
| 2003/2002 total expenditures ratio | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.80 | |
| 2003/2002 drug expenditures ratio | 1.17 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.88 | |
| Outcome: 2003 top 5% user | ||||||
| predicted top 5% user group | 2003 average total expenditures | 51,590 | 78,295 | 96,411 | 110,795 | 111,235 |
| 2003 average drug expenditures | 16,564 | 23,136 | 26,830 | 32,839 | 32,770 | |
| Top/bottom total expenditures ratio | 4.1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 11.6 | |
| Top/bottom drug expenditures ratio | 4.8 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 12.6 | |
| 2003/2002 total expenditures ratio | 1.15 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.91 | |
| 2003/2002 drug expenditures ratio | 1.09 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.99 | |