Table 6.
Overlap of top predicted groups by different risk adjustment models
| Model 1: Demographics |
Model 2: ACGs & Demographics |
Model 3: ADGs, Sel. EDCs & Demographics |
Model 4: 2002 Expenditures & Demographics |
Model 5: ADGs, Sel. EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 Top 0.5% Predicted User | |||||
| Demographics | 0.49%* | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% |
| ACGs & Demographics | 0.50% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.06% | |
| ADGs, 19 EDCs & Demographics | 0.50% | 0.19% | 0.29% | ||
| 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 0.50% | 0.36% | |||
| ADGs, 19 EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 0.50% | ||||
| 2003 Top 1% Predicted User | |||||
| Demographics | 1.00% | 0.21% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.11% |
| ACGs & Demographics | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.32% | |
| ADGs, 19 EDCs & Demographics | 1.00% | 0.40% | 0.65% | ||
| 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 1.00% | 0.69% | |||
| ADGs, 19 EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 1.00% | ||||
| 2003 Top 5% Predicted User | |||||
| Demographics | 4.96%* | 2.43% | 2.09% | 2.46% | 2.01% |
| ACGs & Demographics | 5.00% | 3.43% | 3.02% | 3.21% | |
| ADGs, 19 EDCs & Demographics | 5.00% | 3.09% | 4.06% | ||
| 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 5.00% | 3.73% | |||
| ADGs, 19 EDCs, 2002 Expenditures & Demographics | 5.00% | ||||
*: There were several observations with exactly the same predicted value at the threshold.