Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: Hypertension. 2010 May 3;55(6):1339–1345. doi: 10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.109.149609

Table 2.

Cumulative incidence for developing hypertension at 1.6 years of follow-up and relative risk for hypertension by demographics and risk prediction model components at baseline in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Participant

Characteristic		 Number
of events		 Time
periods
at risk* 		% developing
hypertension
at 1.6 years		 Relative risk†

(95% CI)
Overall 849 7,619 11.1% NA
Race-ethnicity
     Caucasian 351 3,514 10.0% 1 (reference)
     African American 225 1,449 15.5% 1.22 (1.05 – 1.41)
     Hispanic 188 1,634 11.5% 1.10 (0.94 – 1.29)
     Asian 85 1,022 8.3% 0.99 (0.81 – 1.22)
Sex
    Male 403 3,580 11.3% 1 (reference)
    Female 446 4,039 11.0% 1.11 (0.97 – 1.26)
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg
    <110 96 3,148 3.1% 1 (reference)
    110 – 114 75 1,126 6.7% 1.98 (1.45 – 2.71)
    115 – 119 121 1,081 11.2% 2.97 (2.26 – 3.91)
    120 – 124 106 768 13.8% 3.42 (2.55 – 4.59)
    125 – 129 119 584 20.4% 4.85 (3.69 – 6.39)
    130 – 134 153 491 31.2% 7.10 (5.40 – 9.34)
    135 – 139 179 421 42.5% 9.49 (7.27 – 12.4)
Diastolic blood pressure, mmHg
by Age
Age<50 years
    < 70 17 659 2.6% 1 (reference)
    70 – 74 11 223 4.9% 1.17 (0.57 – 2.42)
    75 – 79 29 193 15.0% 2.46 (1.39 – 4.34)
    80 – 84 14 94 14.9% 1.75 (0.90 – 3.41)
    84 – 89 12 35 34.3% 2.86 (1.48 – 5.50)
Age 50 to 59 years
    < 70 68 1553 4.4% 1.51 (0.90 – 2.55)
    70 – 74 43 673 6.4% 1.35 (0.77 – 2.37)
    75 – 79 69 497 13.9% 2.06 (1.20 – 3.53)
    80 – 84 51 253 20.2% 2.29 (1.32 – 3.95)
    84 – 89 24 68 35.3% 2.86 (1.58 – 5.17)
Age 60 to 69 years
    < 70 113 1,153 9.8% 2.44 (1.46 – 4.05)
    70 – 74 51 472 10.8% 1.87 (1.08 – 3.23)
    75 – 79 53 274 19.3% 2.41 (1.39 – 4.17)
    80 – 84 34 141 24.1% 2.48 (1.41 – 4.39)
    84 – 89 10 35 28.6% 2.48 (1.26 –4.91)
Age ≥70 years
    < 70 150 903 16.6% 3.13 (1.88 – 5.20)
    70 – 74 53 217 24.4% 3.06 (1.81 – 5.20)
    75 – 79 25 113 22.1% 2.56 (1.40 – 4.69)
    80 – 84 17 51 33.3% 2.94 (1.57 – 5.51)
    84 – 89 5 12 41.7% 3.21 (1.61 – 6.37)
Body mass index, kg/m2
    <25 244 2,846 8.6% 1 (reference)
    25–29 324 2,995 10.8% 1.06 (0.91 – 1.23)
    ≥ 30 281 1,778 15.8% 1.35 (1.15 – 1.59)
Parental history of hypertension
    0 497 4,384 11.3% 1 (reference)
    1 279 2,626 10.6% 1.04 (0.91 – 1.19)
    2 73 609 12.0% 1.11 (0.89 – 1.37)
Current smoking
    No 726 6,571 11.1% 1 (reference)
    Yes 123 1,048 11.7% 1.15 (0.97 – 1.36)
*

Participants could contribute up to three periods at risk (i.e., between baseline and visit 2, visit 2 and visit 3, and visit 3 and visit 4).

†

All variables listed in table were included in a single multivariable Poisson regression model.