Table 5. Cases that would have been prevented by mass oral vaccination oral cholera vaccine in three endemic sites.
Site | Year | Population | Outbreak duration | Total cholera cases | Attack rate/ 1000 | No. (%) cholera cases prevented at variable response times with 50% vaccine coverage | No. (%) cholera cases prevented at variable response times with 75% vaccine coverage | ||||
Rapid | Delayed | Maximum | Rapid | Delayed | Maximum | ||||||
Zimbabwe | 2008–09 | 13,349,000 | 54 wks | 98,591 | 7.39 | 34,900 (40) | 12,789 (13) | 474 (0) | 59,100 (60) | 19,183 (19) | 711 (1) |
Kolkata | 2003 | 30 wks | 53 | 0.91 | 19 (36) | 7 (13) | 0 (0) | 29 (54) | 10 (19) | 0 (0) | |
2004 | 58,063 | 36 wks | 136 | 2.34 | 18 (13) | 14 (10) | 3 (3) | 27 (20) | 21 (15) | 5 (4) | |
2005 | 41 wks | 33 | 0.59 | 8 (23) | 5 (14) | 1 (3) | 11 (35) | 7 (21) | 1 (4) | ||
Unguja | 1997–98 | 534,512 | 35 wks | 452 | 0.85 | 108 (24) | 73 (16) | 6 (1) | 162 (36) | 110 (24) | 8 (2) |
2002–03 | 643,905 | 88wks | 687 | 1.07 | 164 (24) | 163 (24) | 162 (24) | 246 (36) | 243 (35) | 243 (35) | |
2004–05 | 692,591 | 36wks | 286 | 0.41 | 57 (20) | 45 (16) | 7 (3) | 86 (30) | 67 (23) | 11 (4) | |
2006–07 | 745,262 | 63 wks | 1974 | 2.65 | 558 (28) | 610 (31) | 546 (28) | 837 (42) | 915 (46) | 819 (41) | |
Pemba | 2002–03 | 368,910 | 14wks | 119 | 0.32 | 5 (4) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) | 8 (6) | 0 (0) | 0 (0) |
2003–04 | 377,206 | 55 wks | 862 | 2.29 | 253 (29) | 261 (30) | 124 (14) | 379 (44) | 391 (45) | 186 (22) | |
2006–07 | 403,229 | 75 wks | 1260 | 3.12 | 304 (24) | 217 (17) | 212 (17) | 457 (36) | 326 (26) | 317 (25) |
Mass vaccination is presumed to be using the currently licensed two-dose oral cholera vaccine at varying response times and vaccine coverage.