Table 1. Summary of the regional climate change scenarios.

Driving GCM	Exp.	TRCM (°C)	Pex (%)
		1961–2005	2011–2040	2041–2070	2071–2100
ERA40, control (44)		14.7
BCM [47], [48]		15.2	3	13	34
CCSM3 [49]		13.1	13	27	12
CNRM [50]		15.0	6	18	32
ECHAM5 [51], [52]	r1	14.1	4	15	58
	r2	13.9	11	27	67
	r3	13.9	10	33	53
HadCM3 [53]	Q0 (ref)	15.4	13	28	41
	Q16 (high)	15.5	11	21	45
	Q3 (low)	13.5	6	29	36
IPSL [54]		12.5	12	26	54
Ensemble mean		14.2	9	24	43	(47)
Ensemble median		14.0	10	26	43	(45)
Ensemble standard deviation		1.0	4	7	16	(12)
Ensemble maximum		15.5	13	33	67	(67)
Ensemble minimum		12.5	3	13	12	(32)
Ensemble span		3.0	10	20	55	(35)

T_RCM is the threshold temperature in the regional climate scenarios that corresponds to T_obs = 16°C during the control period 1961–2005. This is the 98th percentile, which also means that the threshold is exceeded in 2% of the cases during the reference period. Columns P_ex is the probability of exceeding this threshold in the future scenario periods. The ERA40 control simulation only covers the control period and is not included in the ensemble summary statistics. Because the CCSM3 driven scenario exhibits a rather different time evolution towards the end of the century compared to the other models, we present ensemble statistics including this scenario included, and in within parentheses also ensemble statistics excluding the CCSM3 driven scenario. Column “Exp.” refer to different experiments with the same GCM; this is explained in section Data and Methods.