Table 6.
Event rates (95% CI) for hospital admission and death due to thromboembolism* per 100 person years by CHA2DS2-VASc score and by covariates
| Score and covariates | 1 year’s follow-up | 5 years’ follow-up | 10 years’ follow-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA2DS2-VASc score= 0 | 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) | 0.69 (0.59 to 0.81) | 0.66 (0.57 to 0.76) |
| CHA2DS2-VASc score=1: | |||
| Heart failure | 1.50 (0.37 to 5.98) | 2.35 (1.30 to 4.24) | 1.78 (0.99 to 3.21) |
| Hypertension | 2.14 (1.46 to 3.15) | 1.60 (1.26 to 2.01) | 1.49 (1.21 to 1.84) |
| Diabetes mellitus | 3.47 (1.65 to 7.27) | 2.28 (1.42 to 3.66) | 2.02 (1.29 to 3.16) |
| Vascular disease | 0.75 (0.24 to 2.33) | 1.40 (0.91 to 2.15) | 1.47 (1.01 to 2.12) |
| Age 65-74 | 2.88 (2.29 to 3.62) | 2.13 (1.85 to 2.46) | 2.09 (1.83 to 2.38) |
| Female sex | 1.24 (0.89 to 1.73) | 0.86 (0.70 to 1.06) | 0.82 (0.68 to 1.00) |
| CHA2DS2-VASc score=2: | |||
| Diabetes + heart failure | 4.53 (0.64 to 32.17) | 3.52 (1.13 to 10.91) | 3.83 (1.44 to 10.21) |
| Diabetes + hypertension | 3.29 (1.37 to 7.91) | 1.79 (0.93 to 3.44) | 1.94 (1.10 to 3.42) |
| Diabetes + age 65-74 | 1.49 (0.48 to 4.61) | 1.92 (1.11 to 3.30) | 1.98 (1.21 to 3.22) |
| Diabetes + vascular disease | 0 | 1.06 (0.15 to 7.55) | 1.80 (0.45 to 7.19) |
| Diabetes + female sex | 1.11 (0.16 to 7.85) | 0.62 (0.16 to 2.49) | 1.23 (0.51 to 2.96) |
| Heart failure + hypertension | 4.11 (1.96 to 8.62) | 3.19 (1.98 to 5.14) | 2.81 (1.79 to 4.41) |
| Heart failure + age 65-74 | 1.84 (0.69 to 4.90) | 2.49 (1.55 to 4.01) | 2.46 (1.59 to 3.82) |
| Heart failure + vascular disease | 3.55 (0.50 to 25.17) | 1.91 (0.48 to 7.66) | 1.49 (0.37 to 5.97) |
| Heart failure + female sex | 0 | 0.55 (0.08 to 3.87) | 0.87 (0.22 to 3.49) |
| Hypertension + age 65-74 | 2.54 (1.74 to 3.70) | 2.22 (1.79 to 2.76) | 2.30 (1.89 to 2.78) |
| Hypertension + vascular disease | 1.56 (0.70 to 3.48) | 1.48 (0.96 to 2.30) | 1.52 (1.02 to 2.24) |
| Hypertension + female sex | 1.84 (1.09 to 3.11) | 1.48 (1.09 to 2.02) | 1.43 (1.08 to 1.89) |
| Age 65-74 + vascular disease | 2.90 (1.72 to 4.89) | 2.47 (1.82 to 3.35) | 2.54 (1.93 to 3.35) |
| Age 65-74 + female sex | 2.82 (2.21 to 3.60) | 2.10 (1.81 to 2.45) | 2.06 (1.80 to 2.36) |
| Vascular disease + female sex | 2.87 (0.93 to 8.91) | 1.95 (0.93 to 4.08) | 2.26 (1.21 to 4.19) |
| Age≥75 | 4.75 (4.14 to 5.44) | 4.37 (4.02 to 4.75) | 4.27 (3.94 to 4.62) |
| Previous thromboembolism | 16.07 (11.64 to 22.18) | 7.87 (6.12 to 10.11) | 6.98 (5.50 to 8.85) |
*Includes peripheral artery embolism, ischaemic stroke, and pulmonary embolism.