Table 1.
Baseline Prevalences of Potential Atrial Fibrillation Risk Factors and Hazard Ratios for Atrial Fibrillation, ARIC 10-Year Follow-Up
| Risk Factor | AF cases (N) | Hazard Ratio (95% CI)* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years) | |||
| 45 to <50 | 3897 (26.8%) | 46 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 50 to <55 | 3771 (25.9%) | 95 | 2.09 (1.47–2.97) |
| 55 to <60 | 3556 (24.5%) | 129 | 2.91 (2.08–4.07) |
| 60 to 64 | 3322 (22.8%) | 245 | 5.94 (4.34–8.15) |
| Race | |||
| Black | 3864 (26.6%) | 83 | 0.60 (0.47–0.76) |
| White | 10682 (73.4%) | 432 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Gender | |||
| Male | 6506 (44.7%) | 325 | 1.92 (1.60–2.30) |
| Female | 8040 (55.3%) | 190 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) | |||
| <20 | 469 (3.2%) | 14 | 1.22 (0.70–2.13) |
| 20 to <25 | 4316 (29.7%) | 121 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 25 to <30 | 5730 (39.4%) | 200 | 1.12 (0.89–1.40) |
| ≥>30 | 4026 (27.7%) | 179 | 1.78 (1.41–2.24) |
| Height (cm) | |||
| <164 | 4892 (33.6%) | 114 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 164 to <173 | 4671 (32.1%) | 142 | 1.28 (0.97–1.69) |
| ≥173 | 4983 (34.3%) | 259 | 1.92 (1.38–2.67) |
| Waist (cm) | |||
| <88/102 (women/men) | 6792 (46.7%) | 209 | 1.00 (ref) |
| ≥88/102 (women/men) | 7751 (53.3%) | 305 | 1.55 (1.29–1.86) |
| Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | |||
| <100 | 1315 (9.0%) | 23 | 0.82 (0.53–1.28) |
| 100 to <120 | 6180 (42.5%) | 153 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 120 to <140 | 4852 (33.4%) | 197 | 1.42 (1.15–1.76) |
| 140 to <160 | 1648 (11.3%) | 103 | 2.16 (1.67–2.79) |
| >≥160 | 551 (3.8%) | 39 | 2.63 (1.83–3.78) |
| Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) | |||
| <70 | 5326 (36.6%) | 173 | 0.93 (0.75–1.15) |
| 70 to <80 | 5227 (35.9%) | 178 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 80 to <90 | 2890 (19.9%) | 114 | 1.24 (0.98–1.57) |
| 90 to <100 | 790 (5.4%) | 34 | 1.53 (1.06–2.22) |
| ≥100 | 312 (2.2%) | 16 | 2.02 (1.20–3.41) |
| Hypertension medication use | 4446 (30.6%) | 276 | 2.55 (2.13–3.04) |
| Total cholesterol (mg/dL) | |||
| <200 | 5410 (37.5%) | 182 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 200 to <240 | 5432 (37.7%) | 205 | 1.02 (0.83–1.24) |
| > 240 | 3575 (24.8%) | 127 | 0.95 (0.75–1.19) |
| LDL cholesterol (mg/dL) | |||
| <100 | 2257 (15.9%) | 64 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 100 to <130 | 4045 (28.5%) | 137 | 1.03 (0.77–1.39) |
| 130 to <160 | 4239 (29.8%) | 160 | 1.05 (0.78–1.40) |
| 160 to <190 | 2377 (16.7%) | 94 | 1.03 (0.75–1.41) |
| >190 | 1291 (9.1%) | 40 | 0.88 (0.59–1.30) |
| HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) | |||
| <40 | 3861 (26.8%) | 215 | 1.76 (1.34–2.30) |
| 40 to <60 | 6730 (46.7%) | 212 | 1.15 (0.89–1.49) |
| >60 | 3828 (26.5%) | 87 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Triglycerides (mg/dL) | |||
| <150 | 14054 (97.4%) | 489 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 150 to <200 | 227 (1.6%) | 12 | 1.28 (0.72–2.27) |
| >200 | 139 (1.0%) | 13 | 2.61 (1.51–4.53) |
| Cholesterol medication use | 422 (2.9%) | 22 | 1.20 (0.78–1.84) |
| Sports Exercise | |||
| <2.0 | 4102 (28.3%) | 143 | 1.17 (0.77–1.78) |
| 2.0 to <3.0 | 6295 (43.4%) | 222 | 1.06 (0.71–1.59) |
| 3.0 to <4.0 | 3408 (23.5%) | 122 | 0.92 (0.61–1.40) |
| >4.0 | 696 (4.8%) | 27 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Smoking status | |||
| Never | 6059 (41.6%) | 150 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Former | 4692 (32.3%) | 202 | 1.27 (1.02–1.59) |
| Current | 3795 (26.1%) | 163 | 1.69 (1.35–2.12) |
| Alcohol drinking status | |||
| Never | 3618 (25.0%) | 101 | 1.00 (ref) |
| Former | 2743 (18.9%) | 126 | 1.25 (0.95–1.63) |
| Current | 8132 (56.1%) | 285 | 0.97 (0.76–1.24) |
| Heart rate (beats per minute) | |||
| <60 | 3601 (24.8%) | 136 | 1.00 (0.82–1.22) |
| 60 to <90 | 10588 (72.8%) | 355 | 1.00 (ref) |
| >90 | 357 (2.4%) | 24 | 2.03 (1.34–3.06) |
| P-R Interval (ms) | |||
| <160 | 6297 (43.3%) | 200 | 1.00 (ref) |
| 160 to <200 | 6897 (47.4%) | 247 | 1.04 (0.86–1.25) |
| >200 | 1351 (9.3%) | 68 | 1.41 (1.07–1.86) |
| Left ventricular hypertrophy | 325 (2.2%) | 27 | 2.73 (1.84–4.06) |
| Left atrial enlargement | 5654 (38.9%) | 277 | 1.61 (1.35–1.92) |
| Precordial murmur | 1083 (7.5%) | 69 | 1.92 (1.49–2.47) |
| Diabetes mellitus | 1741 (12.0%) | 110 | 1.87 (1.51–2.32) |
| Coronary heart disease† | 688 (4.7%) | 74 | 2.21 (1.71–2.84) |
| Heart failure | 670 (4.6%) | 64 | 3.03 (2.32–3.95) |
*
Hazard ratios are adjusted for sex, race, and continuous age.
†
Coronary heart disease includes a history of myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction adjudicated from the baseline electrocardiogram, or history of coronary bypass or angioplasty.