Table 4.

Comparison of Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in the ARIC Cohort using Various Risk Scores from the ARIC study and the Framingham Heart Study

Score	AUC	Risk Factors in Score
ARIC AF		age, race, height, systolic blood pressure, hypertension medication, smoking status, heart murmur, left ventricular hypertrophy, left atrial enlargement, diabetes, heart failure, coronary heart disease
Cox model	0.78
Point-based score	0.76
Framingham AF18		age, gender, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension medication, P-R interval, cardiac murmur, heart failure
Overall	0.68
Whites	0.69
Blacks	0.65
Framingham CHD33		age, gender, total or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,* high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, current smoking
Overall	0.63
Whites	0.63
Blacks	0.66
Framingham Hard CHD34		age, gender, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure,hypertension medication, current smoking
Overall	0.59
Whites	0.60
Blacks	0.59
ARIC CHD35,36	0.58	age, race, gender, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, hypertension medication, current smoking

AF=atrial fibrillation; CHD=coronary heart disease; AUC=area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve.

^*The Framingham CHD score uses either total cholesterol or LDL cholesterol. In this table, we report AUC’s using total cholesterol in our replication of the Framingham CHD score; AUC’s were 0.62 overall, 0.62 in whites, and 0.66 in blacks when using LDL cholesterol.