Table 2.
Five-Year Risks for Coronary Heart Disease as Predicted by Models with and without Coronary Artery Calcium Score, MESA 2000-2008
| 5-Year Risk from Model with CACS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Risk from Model without CACS | 0% to <3% | 3% to <10% | ≥10% | Total | Reclassified to higher risk |
Reclassified to lower risk |
| 0% to <3% | ||||||
| n | 3310 | 430 | 6 | 3,746 | ||
| Events, n | 34 | 22 | 1 | 57 | 23 | NA |
| Nonevents, n | 3276 | 408 | 5 | 3,689 | 413 | |
| KM 5-year Estimate (95% CI) | 0.9 (0.6, 1.3) | 4.8 (3.1 7.3) | 20.0 (3.1, 79.6) | 1.4 (1.0, 1.8) | ||
| 3% to <10% | ||||||
| n | 712 | 843 | 292 | 1,847 | 48 | 15 |
| Events, n | 15 | 52 | 48 | 115 | ||
| Nonevents, n | 697 | 791 | 244 | 1,732 | 244 | 697 |
| KM 5-year Estimate (95% CI) | 1.9 (1.1, 3.3) | 5.4 (4.0, 7.2) | 14.8 (11.1, 19.6) | 5.5 (4.5, 6.6) | ||
| ≥10% | ||||||
| n | 32 | 70 | 183 | 285 | 9 | |
| Events, n | 2 | 7 | 28 | 37 | NA | |
| Nonevents, n | 30 | 63 | 155 | 248 | 93 | |
| KM 5-year Estimate (95% CI) | 6.2 (1.6, 22.8) | 8.9 (4.1, 18.8) | 14.4 (9.9, 20.5) | 12.1 (8.7, 16.6) | ||
| Total | ||||||
| n | 4054 | 1343 | 481 | 5,878 | 71 | 24 |
| Events, n | 51 | 81 | 77 | 209 | ||
| Nonevents, n | 4003 | 1262 | 404 | 5,669 | 657 | 790 |
| KM 5-year Estimate (95% CI) | 1.1 (0.8 1.5) | 5.3 (4.2, 6.7) | 14.7 (11.7, 18.3) | 3.1 (2.7, 3.6) | ||
|
Net reclassification improvement
(95% CI) |
0.25 (0.16,0.34) P<0.001 |
|||||
CI denotes confidence interval