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. 2011 Mar;101(3):473–481. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2010.198002

TABLE 1.

Illustrative Context, Mechanism, and Outcome Configurations: The iConnect Study, United Kingdom

Context Postulated Mechanism Postulated Outcome
Example A: Connect2 project to link city center to country park Now easier and safer to reach park by active modes Modal shift toward active modes for access to park
Now easier and safer to reach park by active modes Increase in overall physical activity associated with visit to park
Now easier and safer to reach park by active modes Park users more likely than nonusers to walk or cycle in general after the intervention
No easier to get anywhere else by active modes No overall effect on travel to work within city
Substitution hypothesis: compensatory decrease in activity within park No change in overall physical activity associated with visit to park
Example B: Connect2 project to link university campus to nearby town Now easier and safer to reach work by active modes Modal shift toward active modes for access to work
No easier to get anywhere else by active modes No effect on travel for other purposes
Now easier and safer to reach work by active modes Net reduction in carbon emissions from private vehicle (car, van, motorcycle) use among employees
Now easier and safer to reach work by active modes Net reduction in household car ownership and use (e.g., car given up)
Now easier and safer to reach work by active modes Net increase in household expenditure on other activities (potentially carbon intensive) resulting in net increase in household carbon emissions