Figure 5.

MVEV status prediction for 2008 in the Kimberley region. The monthly risk of testing positive to MVEV was predicted for each location in the Kimberley for 2008 and 2009 based on the logistic regression model presented in Table 10. The black solid line shows the predicted risk (between 0.0 and 1.0). The presence of the black dots indicates that a location tested positive during a month, while the grey squares represent the monthly number of tests. For some months for which an increased risk is predicted the number of tests is very low. It is possible that the virus is present in an area without being detected at the sentinel chicken test sites due to a lack of sampling.