Table 3. Results obtained by means of Monte Carlo estimates from model-derived meta-analysis on five separate strataa.
| Stratification variable | Estimated no. of rotavirus deathsb | SE | CI | CI width | BIC | Posteriorc (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHO model | 527 000 | 26 800 | 475 000–580 000 | 105 000 | NA | NA |
| Alternative WHO model | 530 000 | 26 500 | 477 000–582 000 | 105 000 | −101.6 | 57.268 |
| Female life expectancy | 537 000 | 32 900 | 473 000–601 000 | 128 000 | −97.2 | 6.345 |
| Male life expectancy | 536 000 | 30 600 | 476 000–596 000 | 121 000 | −97.5 | 7.372 |
| Infant mortality rate (per 1 000 live births) | 526 000 | 29 800 | 467 000–585 000 | 118 000 | −100.2 | 28.438 |
| Under-5 mortality rate (per 1 000 live births) | 555 000 | 36 200 | 485 000–627 000 | 142 000 | −87.8 | 0.058 |
| % DTP3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds | 574 000 | 36 000 | 503 000–646 000 | 143 000 | −92.1 | 0.495 |
| Natural log of per capita GNI (in PPP international dollars) | 609 000d | 34 300 | 542 000–676 000 | 135 000 | −85.8 | 0.021 |
| % urban population | 630 000d | 52 900 | 527 000–734 000 | 206 000 | −81.1 | 0.002 |
| Model average | 530 000 | 28 700 | 473 000–586 000 | 112 000 | NA | NA |
CI, confidence interval; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; DTP3, third dose of diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis vaccine; GNI, gross national income; log, logarithm; NA, not applicable; PPP, purchasing power parity; SE, standard error; WHO, World Health Organization.
a The model average estimate averages across all the models here except for the WHO model.
b In children < 5 years old.
c This represents the posterior probability of all models except the WHO model.
d This estimate was outside the 95% CI in the World Health Organization model.