Table 5. Area under curve for four models.

	Model 1 = clinical*	Model 2 = clinical+top locus**	Model 3 = clinical+GRS	Model 4 = clinical+sub-GRS	p-value model 4 versus 1	p-value model 4 versus 2	p-value model 4 versus 3
anti-dsDNA antibodies	0.581	0.600	0.636	0.655	2.1E–7	3.4E–5	0.020
age at diagnosis<34 years	0.512	0.547	0.560	0.580	0.0080	0.0093	0.12
renal disorder	0.646	0.656	0.657	0.656	0.11	1	0.90
oral ulcers	0.510	0.552	0.578	0.595	1.0E–6	0.0027	0.12
hematologic disorder	0.563	0.571	0.584	0.601	0.0097	0.030	0.12
immunologic disorder	0.580	0.590	0.621	0.633	0.00049	0.0019	0.26

*disease duration and sex for all except early diagnosis; sex only for early diagnosis.

**top locus adjusting for sex and duration: anti-dsdna, early diagnosis, oral ulcers = STAT4; renal = HLA-DR3; immunologic = KIAA1542; hematologic = UBE2L3.