Table 1.

ARIMA regression model of the logarithm of monthly malaria cases (2001-2007) against meteorological factors in Cacao, French Guiana

	MODEL (AIC = 145.23)
	Coefficient	SEM	p-value
Minimum temperature	-0.272	0.15	0.007
Maximum temperature (lag 2)	-0.307	0.13	0.002
Maximum temperature (lag 9)	-0.312	0.098	0.001
Minimum level of river (lag 12)	0.0091	0.0032	0.005
AR	-0.084	0.176	0.635
MA	-0.719	0.098	0.000
Seasonal MA	-0.505	0.13	0.000
Constant	0.037	0.015	0.012

AR: autoregressive term MA: moving average term