Table 3.

Percent each covariate was selected, average percentage of correct associations and average percentage of incorrect associations of the 500 replicates of Simulated Disease 1 for each selection method

Covariate	95% CI	Backward			Forward			Stepwise			SSVS
		p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	w=0.25	w=0.5	w=0.5 or 0.25	informed β-prior means
Smoking+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Alcohol+	100	99.8	100	100	99.8	100	100	99.8	100	100	100	100	100	99.6
XPD+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99.8	100	100	99.8
Fiber	7.4	4.8	11.6	10.2	5.0	11.4	10.2	4.4	11.4	10.2	0	0	0	0
Folate+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
MTHFR+	97.6	87.0	96.2	97.6	84.0	95.0	97.4	83.4	95	97.4	89.2	95.4	93.6	87.2
X6	14.0	23.4	30.8	26.4	22.0	30.4	26.4	21.8	30.4	26.4	0	0	0	0
X7	5.2	1.2	5.2	5.6	1.2	5.0	5.6	1.2	5	27.8	0	0	0	0
X8	16.4	26.0	34.6	27.8	24.6	33.6	27.8	24.2	33.6	25.2	4.2	12.8	3.8	3.6
X9	14.8	22.6	29.8	25.0	22.4	30.2	25.2	22.4	30.2	25.2	0	0	0	0
X10	5.4	2.6	8.0	6.8	3.0	7.4	6.8	3.0	7.4	6.8	1.2	5.6	0.6	0.6
X15	5.4	1.0	6.0	5.6	1.5	5.6	5.6	1.0	5.6	5.6	3.0	13.2	2.8	2.8
Avg. correct Associations	94.1	92.1	89.2	90.9	92.0	89.3	90.8	92.1	89.3	89.2	98.4	97.0	98.9	98.3
Avg. incorrect associations	5.9	7.9	10.8	9.2	8.0	10.7	9.2	7.9	10.7	10.8	1.6	3.0	1.1	1.7
Avg. Ratio*	15.9	11.7	8.2	9.9	11.5	8.3	9.9	11.7	8.3	8.2	60.6	32.1	87.2	57.8

⁺denotes covariate in true model

^*Avg. Ratio is calculated as the Avg. Correct Associations/Avg. Incorrect Associations