Table 4.

Percent each covariate was selected, average percentage of correct associations and average percentage of incorrect associations of the 500 replicates of Simulated Disease 2 for each selection method.

Covariate	95% CI	Backward			Forward			Stepwise			SSVS
		p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	p=0.01	p=0.05	p=0.20	w=0.25	w=0.5	w=0.5 or 0.25	informed β-prior means
Smoking+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Alcohol+	100	35.6	60.8	83.6	33.8	59.6	83.6	33.0	59.4	83.6	49.2	68.6	60.0	38.4
XPD+	76.8	46.8	73.6	76.6	43.8	73.0	76.6	43.4	73.0	76.6	53.8	71.0	64.4	49.2
Fiber	10.4	5.0	13.4	11.4	5.2	13.2	21.4	4.6	13.2	11.4	0	0	0	6.8
Folate+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
MTHFR+	89.0	74.2	90.8	89.0	73.8	90.4	89.2	73.4	90.4	89.2	68.4	86.4	83.2	63.2
X6+	100	100	100	100	99.2	100	100	95.0	100	100	99.4	99.8	99.8	99.2
X7+	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
X10+	53.2	22.2	49.6	52.0	20.6	49.2	52.0	19.8	49.2	52.0	29.0	49.6	44.0	24.2
X11	42.4	38.8	53.6	47.6	36.8	53.2	47.6	36.4	53.0	47.6	0	0	0	0
X12	50.4	48.6	57.6	54.2	46.0	56.4	54.4	45.8	56.4	54.4	0	0	0	0
X13	46.8	43.0	58.4	53.0	42.4	58.2	53.0	41.6	58.2	53.0	0	0	0	0
X14	21.6	15.8	29.0	26.0	15.4	29.0	25.8	15.4	29.0	26.0	0	0	0	0
Avg. Correct Associations	80.6	71.4	74.0	77.6	71.2	74.0	76.8	70.8	74.0	77.6	84.6	90.4	88.6	82.1
Avg. Incorrect Associations	19.4	28.6	25.9	22.4	28.8	26.0	23.1	29.2	26.0	22.4	15.4	9.6	11.4	17.9
Avg. Ratio*	4.1	2.5	2.9	3.5	2.5	2.8	3.3	2.4	2.8	3.5	5.5	9.4	7.74	4.6

⁺Denotes covariate in the true model

^*Avg. Ratio is calculated as the Avg. Correct Associations/Avg. Incorrect Associations.