Table 1.

Estimates of land use in 2000 and additional land demand for 2030

Land use category	Low, Mha	High, Mha
Land use in 2000
Cropland	1,510	1,611
Pastures	2,500	3,410
Natural forests	3,143	3,871
Planted forests	126	215
Urban built-up area	66	351
Unused, productive land	356	445
Projected land use for 2030
Additional cropland	81	147
Additional biofuel crops	44	118
Additional grazing land	0	151
Urban expansion	48	100
Expansion industrial forestry	56	109
Expansion of protected areas	26	80
Land lost to land degradation	30	87
Total land demand for 2030	285	792
Balance (unused land in 2000 − land demand in 2030)
With no deforestation	+71	−347
Clearing of natural forests	152	303
With deforestation	+223	−44

These values were derived from the literature and selected based on an expert judgment, evaluating the realism of underlying assumptions, looking for a convergence of evidence, and using 2000–2010 observations as a reality check (references and explanations in SI Text). The low estimates represent a conservative view of both land reserve and additional land demand, whereas the high estimates represent a slightly bolder view.