. 2010 Sep 14;12(2):283–302. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxq059

Table 2.

ML estimates for the scenario-specific parameters $q, ϵ, σ, φ$ , and the basic reproduction number R₀, with 95% bootstrap-based percentile CIs in square brackets, information criteria AIC and BIC (minima indicated in boldface), obtained under the assumption of AW with cut off H = 35 years

Country	Model				${\hat{R}}_{0}$		AIC	BIC
Country	Model				${\hat{R}}_{0}$		AIC	BIC
BE	MSIRW	$\hat{q}$	0.080	[0.063, 0.096]	3.53	[2.94, 4.30]	3359.11	3377.19
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.007	[0.005, 0.009]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.000]
	MSIRWb	$\hat{q}$	0.084	[0.065, 0.102]	3.70	[3.05, 4.57]	3361.77	3379.86
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.019	[0.012, 0.027]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.005	[0.001, 0.010]
	MSIRWb-ext	$\hat{q}$	0.085	[0.067, 0.103]	3.75	[3.08, 4.63]	3353.63	3377.74
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.013	[0.008, 0.020]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.005]
		$\hat{φ}$	0.35	[0.05, 0.94]
	MSIRS	$\hat{q}$	0.065	[0.056, 0.072]	2.86	[2.61, 3.20]	3359.25	3377.34
		${\hat{σ}}_{1}$	0.030	[0.018, 0.049]
		${\hat{σ}}_{2}$	0.010	[0.004, 0.018]
EW	MSIRW	$\hat{q}$	0.064	[0.054, 0.070]	2.05	[1.84, 2.27]	3521.81	3539.65
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.008	[0.004, 0.011]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.002]
	MSIRWb	$\hat{q}$	0.068	[0.056, 0.076]	2.18	[1.92, 2.46]	3514.79	3532.63
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.017	[0.008, 0.025]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.003	[0.000, 0.006]
	MSIRWb-ext	$\hat{q}$	0.068	[0.057, 0.076]	2.19	[1.93, 2.46]	3514.61	3538.39
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.026	[0.010, 0.048]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.007	[0.000, 0.017]
		$\hat{φ}$	2.030	[0.30, 5.59]00
	MSIRS	$\hat{q}$	0.061	[0.053, 0.065]	1.96	[1.82, 2.10]	3512.43	3530.27
		${\hat{σ}}_{1}$	0.021	[0.010, 0.032]
		${\hat{σ}}_{2}$	0.003	[0.000, 0.007]
IT	MSIRW	$\hat{q}$	0.029	[0.024, 0.031]	1.96	[1.72, 2.17]	3176.10	3193.59
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.006	[0.000, 0.009]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.001	[0.000, 0.005]
	MSIRWb	$\hat{q}$	0.029	[0.024, 0.032]	1.99	[1.74, 2.24]	3174.87	3192.36
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.008	[0.000, 0.014]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.004	[0.000, 0.007]
	MSIRS	$\hat{q}$	0.028	[0.023, 0.030]	1.90	[1.72, 2.08]	3175.53	3193.02
		${\hat{σ}}_{1}$	0.010	[0.000, 0.017]
		${\hat{σ}}_{2}$	0.004	[0.000, 0.008]
PL	MSIRW	$\hat{q}$	0.049	[0.041, 0.054]	2.24	[2.00, 2.49]	2788.15	2805.62
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.001	[0.000, 0.004]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.000]
	MSIRWb	$\hat{q}$	0.057	[0.044, 0.068]	2.64	[2.11, 3.16]	2770.01	2787.48
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.013	[0.001, 0.022]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.000]
	MSIRWb-ext	$\hat{q}$	0.058	[0.047, 0.066]	2.67	[2.29, 3.04]	2752.17	2775.46
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{1}$	0.030	[0.018, 0.048]
		${\hat{ϵ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.001]
		$\hat{φ}$	2.45	[1.59, 5.18]
	MSIRS	$\hat{q}$	0.053	[0.046, 0.056]	2.44	[2.23, 2.60]	2740.45	2757.91
		${\hat{σ}}_{1}$	0.042	[0.014, 0.082]
		${\hat{σ}}_{2}$	0.000	[0.000, 0.001]