Table 3.
ML estimates for the average maternal proportion of susceptibles (), the average maternal force of infection (), and the annual number of PVB19 infections (Ip) in pregnant women, the frequency of PVB19 infection in pregnancy (freq), and the annual number of fetal deaths due to PVB19 infection (FD), together with 95% bootstrap-based percentile CIs in square brackets. First entry: CW; second entry (if available): AW with cut off H = 35 years
| Country | Model | Waning | Freq | FD | ||||||||
| BE | MSIR | 0.27 | [0.23, 0.30] | 0.034 | [0.028, 0.039] | 797 | [656, 905] | 1 in 143 | [126, 174] | 31 | [25, 35] | |
| MSIRW | CW | 0.17 | [0.12, 0.21] | 0.046 | [0.036, 0.057] | 677 | [552, 777] | 1 in 168 | [147, 207] | 26 | [21, 30] | |
| AW | 0.14 | [0.10, 0.17] | 0.051 | [0.040, 0.062] | 622 | [509, 721] | 1 in 183 | [158, 224] | 24 | [20, 28] | ||
| MSIRWb | CW | 0.15 | [0.11, 0.19] | 0.048 | [0.038, 0.060] | 652 | [526, 760] | 1 in 175 | [150, 217] | 25 | [20, 29] | |
| AW | 0.13 | [0.09, 0.16] | 0.054 | [0.042, 0.066] | 595 | [479, 701] | 1 in 192 | [163, 238] | 23 | [18, 27] | ||
| MSIRWb-ext | CW | 0.15 | [0.11, 0.20] | 0.048 | [0.038, 0.060] | 653 | [525, 762] | 1 in 175 | [150, 217] | 25 | [20, 29] | |
| AW | 0.12 | [0.09, 0.16] | 0.054 | [0.042, 0.067] | 587 | [473, 684] | 1 in 194 | [167, 241] | 23 | [18, 26] | ||
| MSIRS | CW | 0.24 | [0.21, 0.27] | 0.059 | [0.042, 0.082] | 1256 | [915, 1703] | 1 in 91 | [67, 125] | 48 | [35, 66] | |
| AW | 0.29 | [0.26, 0.33] | 0.077 | [0.057, 0.107] | 1990 | [1431, 2825] | 1 in 57 | [40, 80] | 77 | [55, 109] | ||
| MSIRS-ext | CW | 0.25 | [0.21, 0.27] | 0.050 | [0.038, 0.145] | 1091 | [839, 2889] | 1 in 105 | [39, 136] | 42 | [32, 111] | |
| EW | MSIR | 0.38 | [0.35, 0.41] | 0.018 | [0.015, 0.020] | 3373 | [2874, 3659] | 1 in 192 | [177, 226] | 130 | [111, 141] | |
| MSIRW | CW | 0.32 | [0.28, 0.36] | 0.021 | [0.017, 0.024] | 3365 | [2867, 3655] | 1 in 193 | [178, 226] | 130 | [110, 141] | |
| AW | 0.27 | [0.23, 0.32] | 0.025 | [0.019, 0.028] | 3277 | [2814, 3580] | 1 in 198 | [181, 231] | 126 | [108, 138] | ||
| MSIRWb | CW | 0.31 | [0.27, 0.36] | 0.022 | [0.017, 0.025] | 3358 | [2861, 3649] | 1 in 193 | [178, 227] | 129 | [110, 140] | |
| AW | 0.23 | [0.19, 0.29] | 0.027 | [0.020, 0.032] | 3181 | [2743, 3499] | 1 in 204 | [186, 237] | 122 | [106, 135] | ||
| MSIRWb-ext | CW | 0.31 | [0.27, 0.36] | 0.022 | [0.017, 0.025] | 3354 | [2865, 3647] | 1 in 194 | [178, 227] | 129 | [110, 140] | |
| AW | 0.23 | [0.19, 0.28] | 0.028 | [0.021, 0.032] | 3172 | [2741, 3488] | 1 in 205 | [186, 237] | 122 | [106, 134] | ||
| MSIRS | CW | 0.35 | [0.33, 0.38] | 0.022 | [0.017, 0.026] | 3919 | [3113, 4469] | 1 in 166 | [145, 208] | 151 | [120, 172] | |
| AW | 0.39 | [0.36, 0.43] | 0.031 | [0.023, 0.038] | 6156 | [4187, 7603] | 1 in 105 | [85, 155] | 237 | [161, 293] | ||
| MSIRS-ext | CW | 0.36 | [0.33, 0.38] | 0.022 | [0.017, 0.031] | 3845 | [3140, 5333] | 1 in 169 | [122, 207] | 148 | [121, 205] | |
| FI | MSIR | 0.43 | [0.39, 0.45] | 0.014 | [0.011, 0.016] | 260 | [200, 289] | 1 in 220 | [197, 285] | 10 | [8, 11] | |
| MSIRW(b) | CW | 0.43 | [0.39, 0.45] | 0.014 | [0.011, 0.016] | 260 | [200, 290] | 1 in 220 | [197, 285] | 10 | [8, 11] | |
| MSIRS | CW | 0.43 | [0.39, 0.45] | 0.014 | [0.011, 0.016] | 260 | [201, 294] | 1 in 220 | [194, 284] | 10 | [8, 11] | |
| IT | MSIR | 0.38 | [0.36, 0.41] | 0.010 | [0.007, 0.011] | 1590 | [1277, 1764] | 1 in 354 | [319, 440] | 61 | [49, 68] | |
| MSIRW | CW | 0.32 | [0.28, 0.37] | 0.012 | [0.009, 0.014] | 1594 | [1282, 1782] | 1 in 353 | [316, 439] | 61 | [49, 69] | |
| AW | 0.29 | [0.25, 0.36] | 0.013 | [0.009, 0.014] | 1583 | [1278, 1778] | 1 in 355 | [316, 440] | 61 | [49, 68] | ||
| MSIRWb | CW | 0.31 | [0.27, 0.37] | 0.012 | [0.009, 0.014] | 1591 | [1282, 1781] | 1 in 354 | [316, 439] | 61 | [49, 69] | |
| AW | 0.28 | [0.24, 0.36] | 0.013 | [0.009, 0.015] | 1577 | [1269, 1776] | 1 in 357 | [317, 443] | 61 | [49, 68] | ||
| MSIRS | CW | 0.36 | [0.34, 0.39] | 0.013 | [0.009, 0.015] | 1957 | [1452, 2294] | 1 in 288 | [245, 387] | 75 | [56, 88] | |
| AW | 0.38 | [0.34, 0.42] | 0.014 | [0.010, 0.018] | 2356 | [1509, 3019] | 1 in 238 | [186, 373] | 91 | [58, 116] | ||
| MSIRS-ext | CW | 0.36 | [0.34, 0.39] | 0.012 | [0.009, 0.015] | 1888 | [1443, 2387] | 1 in 298 | [236, 390] | 73 | [56, 92] | |
| PL | MSIR | 0.31 | [0.28, 0.33] | 0.024 | [0.019, 0.028] | 2208 | [1753, 2577] | 1 in 173 | [148, 218] | 85 | [67, 99] | |
| MSIRW(b) | CW | 0.31 | [0.28, 0.33] | 0.024 | [0.019, 0.028] | 2208 | [1753, 2569] | 1 in 173 | [149, 218] | 85 | [67, 99] | |
| MSIRW | AW | 0.29 | [0.25, 0.32] | 0.025 | [0.019, 0.030] | 2147 | [1726, 2469] | 1 in 178 | [155, 221] | 83 | [66, 95] | |
| MSIRWb | AW | 0.21 | [0.16, 0.29] | 0.030 | [0.021, 0.037] | 1854 | [1470, 2225] | 1 in 206 | [172, 260] | 71 | [57, 86] | |
| MSIRWb-ext | AW | 0.21 | [0.17, 0.26] | 0.030 | [0.023, 0.036] | 1832 | [1477, 2192] | 1 in 208 | [174, 259] | 71 | [57, 84] | |
| MSIRS | CW | 0.31 | [0.28, 0.33] | 0.024 | [0.019, 0.028] | 2208 | [1753, 2586] | 1 in 173 | [148, 218] | 85 | [67, 100] | |
| AW | 0.38 | [0.32, 0.42] | 0.065 | [0.036, 0.100] | 7277 | [3386, 12305] | 1 in 52 | [31, 113] | 280 | [130, 474] |