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. 2010 Sep 14;12(2):283–302. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxq059

Table 3.

ML estimates for the average maternal proportion of susceptibles (s¯p), the average maternal force of infection (λ¯p), and the annual number of PVB19 infections (Ip) in pregnant women, the frequency of PVB19 infection in pregnancy (freq), and the annual number of fetal deaths due to PVB19 infection (FD), together with 95% bootstrap-based percentile CIs in square brackets. First entry: CW; second entry (if available): AW with cut off H = 35 years

Country Model Waning s¯ˆp λ¯ˆp Iˆp Freq FD
BE MSIR 0.27 [0.23, 0.30] 0.034 [0.028, 0.039] 797 [656, 905] 1 in 143 [126, 174] 31 [25, 35]
MSIRW CW 0.17 [0.12, 0.21] 0.046 [0.036, 0.057] 677 [552, 777] 1 in 168 [147, 207] 26 [21, 30]
AW 0.14 [0.10, 0.17] 0.051 [0.040, 0.062] 622 [509, 721] 1 in 183 [158, 224] 24 [20, 28]
MSIRWb CW 0.15 [0.11, 0.19] 0.048 [0.038, 0.060] 652 [526, 760] 1 in 175 [150, 217] 25 [20, 29]
AW 0.13 [0.09, 0.16] 0.054 [0.042, 0.066] 595 [479, 701] 1 in 192 [163, 238] 23 [18, 27]
MSIRWb-ext CW 0.15 [0.11, 0.20] 0.048 [0.038, 0.060] 653 [525, 762] 1 in 175 [150, 217] 25 [20, 29]
AW 0.12 [0.09, 0.16] 0.054 [0.042, 0.067] 587 [473, 684] 1 in 194 [167, 241] 23 [18, 26]
MSIRS CW 0.24 [0.21, 0.27] 0.059 [0.042, 0.082] 1256 [915, 1703] 1 in 91 [67, 125] 48 [35, 66]
AW 0.29 [0.26, 0.33] 0.077 [0.057, 0.107] 1990 [1431, 2825] 1 in 57 [40, 80] 77 [55, 109]
MSIRS-ext CW 0.25 [0.21, 0.27] 0.050 [0.038, 0.145] 1091 [839, 2889] 1 in 105 [39, 136] 42 [32, 111]
EW MSIR 0.38 [0.35, 0.41] 0.018 [0.015, 0.020] 3373 [2874, 3659] 1 in 192 [177, 226] 130 [111, 141]
MSIRW CW 0.32 [0.28, 0.36] 0.021 [0.017, 0.024] 3365 [2867, 3655] 1 in 193 [178, 226] 130 [110, 141]
AW 0.27 [0.23, 0.32] 0.025 [0.019, 0.028] 3277 [2814, 3580] 1 in 198 [181, 231] 126 [108, 138]
MSIRWb CW 0.31 [0.27, 0.36] 0.022 [0.017, 0.025] 3358 [2861, 3649] 1 in 193 [178, 227] 129 [110, 140]
AW 0.23 [0.19, 0.29] 0.027 [0.020, 0.032] 3181 [2743, 3499] 1 in 204 [186, 237] 122 [106, 135]
MSIRWb-ext CW 0.31 [0.27, 0.36] 0.022 [0.017, 0.025] 3354 [2865, 3647] 1 in 194 [178, 227] 129 [110, 140]
AW 0.23 [0.19, 0.28] 0.028 [0.021, 0.032] 3172 [2741, 3488] 1 in 205 [186, 237] 122 [106, 134]
MSIRS CW 0.35 [0.33, 0.38] 0.022 [0.017, 0.026] 3919 [3113, 4469] 1 in 166 [145, 208] 151 [120, 172]
AW 0.39 [0.36, 0.43] 0.031 [0.023, 0.038] 6156 [4187, 7603] 1 in 105 [85, 155] 237 [161, 293]
MSIRS-ext CW 0.36 [0.33, 0.38] 0.022 [0.017, 0.031] 3845 [3140, 5333] 1 in 169 [122, 207] 148 [121, 205]
FI MSIR 0.43 [0.39, 0.45] 0.014 [0.011, 0.016] 260 [200, 289] 1 in 220 [197, 285] 10 [8, 11]
MSIRW(b) CW 0.43 [0.39, 0.45] 0.014 [0.011, 0.016] 260 [200, 290] 1 in 220 [197, 285] 10 [8, 11]
MSIRS CW 0.43 [0.39, 0.45] 0.014 [0.011, 0.016] 260 [201, 294] 1 in 220 [194, 284] 10 [8, 11]
IT MSIR 0.38 [0.36, 0.41] 0.010 [0.007, 0.011] 1590 [1277, 1764] 1 in 354 [319, 440] 61 [49, 68]
MSIRW CW 0.32 [0.28, 0.37] 0.012 [0.009, 0.014] 1594 [1282, 1782] 1 in 353 [316, 439] 61 [49, 69]
AW 0.29 [0.25, 0.36] 0.013 [0.009, 0.014] 1583 [1278, 1778] 1 in 355 [316, 440] 61 [49, 68]
MSIRWb CW 0.31 [0.27, 0.37] 0.012 [0.009, 0.014] 1591 [1282, 1781] 1 in 354 [316, 439] 61 [49, 69]
AW 0.28 [0.24, 0.36] 0.013 [0.009, 0.015] 1577 [1269, 1776] 1 in 357 [317, 443] 61 [49, 68]
MSIRS CW 0.36 [0.34, 0.39] 0.013 [0.009, 0.015] 1957 [1452, 2294] 1 in 288 [245, 387] 75 [56, 88]
AW 0.38 [0.34, 0.42] 0.014 [0.010, 0.018] 2356 [1509, 3019] 1 in 238 [186, 373] 91 [58, 116]
MSIRS-ext CW 0.36 [0.34, 0.39] 0.012 [0.009, 0.015] 1888 [1443, 2387] 1 in 298 [236, 390] 73 [56, 92]
PL MSIR 0.31 [0.28, 0.33] 0.024 [0.019, 0.028] 2208 [1753, 2577] 1 in 173 [148, 218] 85 [67, 99]
MSIRW(b) CW 0.31 [0.28, 0.33] 0.024 [0.019, 0.028] 2208 [1753, 2569] 1 in 173 [149, 218] 85 [67, 99]
MSIRW AW 0.29 [0.25, 0.32] 0.025 [0.019, 0.030] 2147 [1726, 2469] 1 in 178 [155, 221] 83 [66, 95]
MSIRWb AW 0.21 [0.16, 0.29] 0.030 [0.021, 0.037] 1854 [1470, 2225] 1 in 206 [172, 260] 71 [57, 86]
MSIRWb-ext AW 0.21 [0.17, 0.26] 0.030 [0.023, 0.036] 1832 [1477, 2192] 1 in 208 [174, 259] 71 [57, 84]
MSIRS CW 0.31 [0.28, 0.33] 0.024 [0.019, 0.028] 2208 [1753, 2586] 1 in 173 [148, 218] 85 [67, 100]
AW 0.38 [0.32, 0.42] 0.065 [0.036, 0.100] 7277 [3386, 12305] 1 in 52 [31, 113] 280 [130, 474]