Figure 2. Data and fitted models from the reanalysis of the synthetic cohort study.

The top two panels have replotted the original data and results of the reanalysis in two ways: (a) the daily FOI and (b) transmission efficiency versus the daily EIR. Each point is an estimate of the daily FOI or transmission efficiency; the bars show the confidence intervals on the FOI by the exact test on the attack rate. Lines show the best fits for the fitted models: solid black is the rooted linear model (b≈1/20), dashed black shows the slope from the unrooted linear model (b≈1/37) and red shows the best-fit heterogeneous biting model. The grey line is plotted for reference to show the relationship predicted by the Ross–Macdonald model (that is, a linear relationship), assuming b=0.55. (c) Under the assumption that EIR was biased by a factor of two, the analysis was redone and plotted as transmission efficiency. The fitted slopes for the rooted (solid black) and unrooted (dashed black) linear models are different (b≈1/10 or 1/20, respectively). The dashed red line shows the new best fit for the heterogeneous biting model. The solid red line and grey lines were replotted from b for reference.