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. 2011 Apr 15;52(8):1046–1049. doi: 10.1093/cid/cir085

Table 1.

Model Results

Year Prevalence of HIV infection,%
Baseline CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm3 ART initiation, CD4 cell count <500 cells/mm3 Treat all in care Test-and-treat all
2009 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7
2014 25.1 22.9 21.9 20.9
2019 25.5 21.7 19.4 17.5
2029 26.2 21.8 17.1 12.8
New HIV infections since 2009 Baseline (CD4<350) ART start CD4<500 Treat all in care Test-and-treat all
2014 3703 2149 1534 893
2019 7446 4344 2896 1406
2029 14,960 10,020 6739 2771
HIV Infections Averted* ART start CD4<500 Treat all in care Test-and-treat all
2014 Reference 1554 2169 2810
2019 Reference 3102 4550 6040
2029 Reference 4940 8221 12,189
Percent reduction in new HIV infectionsa Reference ART start CD4<500 Treat all in care Test-and-treat all
2014 Reference 42 59 76
2019 Reference 42 61 81
2029 Reference 33 55 81
a

HIV infections averted and percent reduction in new infections are relative to 2009 model estimates. Expansion of ART treatment strategies are assumed to start in 2009.