Table 1.
Progression of first-detected AF according to various pattern-based classification schemes
| Study | Classification* |
n(n followed from first-detected episode) |
Follow-up, years‡ | Recurrence after first-detected episode |
Transition to permanent AF§ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takahashi et al., 198132 |
Paroxysmal or permanent | 94 (94)‖, ¶ |
9 (study period) | 27% | 20% |
| Petersen et al., 198645 |
Paroxysmal or chronic | 426 (426)‖ |
3.5 (median) | NR | 33% |
| Kopecky et al., 198723 |
Isolated, recurrent or chronic |
97 (97)# |
14.8 (mean) | 21% | NR |
| Kato et al., 200444 | Paroxysmal or chronic | 171 (171)‖ ** |
14.1 (mean) | NA | 77%, incidence rate of 5.5% per year |
| Jahangir et al., 200737 |
Paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
76 (76)#,‡‡ |
25.2 (mean) | NR | 29% cumulative incidence of permanent AF at 30 years |
| Davidson et al., 198943 |
Paroxysmal or chronic | 32 (NR)# |
4.9 (mean) | 44% | 0% |
| Scardi et al., 199933 | Isolated, recurrent or chronic |
145 (145)# |
10.4 (mean) | 17% | 23% |
| Levy et al., 199935 | Paroxysmal, recent onset or chronic |
756 (163)§§ |
8.6 (mean) | 60.7% | 8% |
| Al-Khatib et al., 200034 |
Intermittent or permanent | 231 (NR)‖‖ |
19 (study period) | NR | 18% cumulative incidence of permanent at 4 years |
| Kerr et al., 200536 | Paroxysmal or chronic | 757 (757)‖ |
8 (median) | 16% | 25% cumulative incidence of chronic AF at 5 years |
| Pappone et al., 200838 |
Paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
106 (106)‖, ¶¶ |
5 (study period) | 47% | 15% |
| Nieuwlaat et al., 200839 |
First detected, paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
4192 (708) |
1 (study period) | 46% | 20% |
| Keating et al., 200541 |
Paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
270 (270) |
2.9 (mean) | 0%## | 34% cumulative incidence of permanent AF at 4 years |
| Ruigomez et al., 200542 |
Paroxysmal or chronic | 525 (525)‖ |
2.7 (mean) | 30% | 22% cumulative incidence of chronic AF at 4.5 years |
| Tsang et al., 200840 | Paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
3,248 (3,248)‖ |
5.1 (median) | NR | 17% |
| de Vos et al., 201048 |
First-detected, paroxysmal, persistent or permanent |
1219 (165)*** |
1 (study period) | NR | 14% |
AF types had different definitions across classifications schemes despite similar labels.
The mean, median, or duration of the study period is reported.
Or most chronic form per respective classification scheme. Calculation refers only to those with first-detected AF in whom progression to a more chronic form was possible.
All paroxysmal at baseline.
Data do not account for censoring.
Lone AF only.
All had recurrent AF.
Follow-up subset from Kopecky et al.23
Refers to paroxysmal group only.
All intermittent at baseline.
51% individuals had lone AF and 10% of the overall sample underwent catheter ablation for AF and experienced no recurrent disease.
Only individuals with recurrent AF were included.
Subset from Nieuwlaat et al.39 with sinus rhythm after first-detected AF.
Abbreviations: AF, atrial fibrillation; NA, not applicable; NR, not reported.