Table 5.
Probit regressions for probability of advancing 3 grades between 2002 and 2005, CAPS respondents in grades 8 or 9 in 2002
| Probit coefficients |
Tests for equality of coefficients |
Marginal effects at X1 |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | African | Coloured | White | African- Coloured |
African- White |
White- Coloured |
African | Coloured | White |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Number of grades failed, 2002 |
−0.202 [0.083]** |
−0.69 [0.165]*** |
−0.846 [0.501]* |
7.089 (0.008)*** |
1.632 (0.202) |
0.086 (0.769) |
−0.074 [0.031]** |
−0.239 [0.045]*** |
−0.221 [0.170] |
|
| |||||||||
| Standardized LNE total score |
0.313 [0.087]*** |
0.743 [0.128]*** |
0.871 [0.407]** |
7.776 (0.005)*** |
1.826 (0.177) |
0.092 (0.760) |
0.115 [0.035]*** |
0.256 [0.057]*** |
0.227 [0.146] |
|
| |||||||||
| Log hh income per capita |
0.094 [0.086] |
0.213 [0.097]** |
0.567 [0.295]* |
0.850 (0.357) |
2.414 (0.121) |
1.304 (0.254) |
0.035 [0.032] |
0.074 [0.035]** |
0.148 [0.105] |
|
| |||||||||
| Mother’s schooling |
−0.002 [0.032] |
0.084 [0.041]** |
−0.106 [0.106] |
2.776 (0.096)* |
0.895 (0.344) |
2.845 (0.092)* |
−0.001 [0.012] |
0.029 [0.014]** |
−0.028 [0.035] |
|
| |||||||||
| Father’s schooling | 0.033 [0.024] |
0.021 [0.032] |
0.129 [0.125] |
0.090 (0.763) |
0.577 (0.447) |
0.711 (0.399) |
0.012 [0.009] |
0.007 [0.011] |
0.034 [0.034] |
|
| |||||||||
| Unemployment rate |
0.408 [0.577] |
−0.254 [0.391] |
−0.035 [0.931] |
0.894 (0.345) |
0.165 (0.684) |
0.048 (0.826) |
0.150 [0.205] |
−0.088 [0.134] |
−0.009 [0.242] |
|
| |||||||||
| Grade 9 in 2002 | −0.150 [0.117] |
−0.501 [0.169]*** |
−0.775 [0.375]** |
2.958 (0.086)* |
2.569 (0.110) |
0.444 (0.505) |
−0.053 [0.042] |
−0.146 [0.056]*** |
−0.134 [0.126] |
|
| |||||||||
| Female | −0.159 [0.151] |
0.181 [0.166] |
0.14 [0.518] |
2.330 (0.127) |
0.312 (0.576) |
0.005 (0.939) |
−0.06 [0.057] |
0.059 [0.056] |
0.034 [0.121] |
|
| |||||||||
| Constant | −0.53 [0.536] |
−0.713 [0.570] |
−0.377 [1.516] |
0.054 (0.815) |
0.009 (0.923) |
0.043 (0.834) |
|||
|
| |||||||||
| Predicted probability at X 1 | 0.343 | 0.295 | 0.178 | ||||||
|
| |||||||||
| Observations | 458 | 391 | 84 | ||||||
Robust standard errors in brackets in columns 1-3 and 7-9; p-value of F tests in parentheses in columns 4-6
*
significant at 10%
**
significant at 5%
***
significant at 1%. Regression includes dummy variables for missing values on parental schooling and household shock. Marginal effects evaluated for female in grade 8 in 2002, 1 failed grade, LNE=0, log income=0, parental schooling=8, unemployment rate=0.6.