Table 1.
A summary of the examined phenophases and the regressions of phenophases on year and on mean temperature
| Scientific name | English name | Phase | Mean (DOY) | SD | n | Regression on year | Regression on 3 months temperature | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| slope days/year | SE | P | R 2 | slope days/°C | SE | P | R 2 | ||||||
| Corylus avellana | Hazel | Pollen | 56.5 | 24.9 | 31 | –0.83 | 0.48 | 0.097 | 9.2 | –8.94 | 1.31 | <0.001 | 61.4 |
| Pulmonaria obscura | Suffolk Lungwort | First shoot | 58.3 | 23.7 | 29 | –0.28 | 0.49 | 0.572 | 1.2 | –8.60 | 1.40 | <0.001 | 58.3 |
| Alnus incana | Grey Alder | Pollen | 60.0 | 22.6 | 31 | –0.81 | 0.44 | 0.074 | 10.6 | –7.95 | 1.23 | <0.001 | 59.2 |
| Galanthus nivalis | Snowdrop | First flower | 61.5 | 16.0 | 31 | –0.62 | 0.31 | 0.051 | 12.5 | –5.62 | 0.88 | <0.001 | 58.7 |
| Leucojum vernum | Spring Snowflake | First shoot | 62.9 | 16.3 | 30 | –0.62 | 0.32 | 0.061 | 12.0 | –5.42 | 0.94 | <0.001 | 54.5 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Dotted Loosestrife | First shoot | 63.1 | 21.1 | 31 | –0.76 | 0.41 | 0.072 | 10.8 | –7.27 | 1.18 | <0.001 | 56.7 |
| Corylus avellana | Hazel | First leaf | 102.7 | 11.3 | 31 | –0.54 | 0.21 | 0.014 | 19.3 | –5.18 | 0.97 | <0.001 | 49.5 |
| Convallaria majalis | Lily of the Valley | First shoot | 104.7 | 9.0 | 31 | –0.36 | 0.17 | 0.046 | 13.0 | –3.45 | 0.88 | <0.001 | 34.5 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Horse Chestnut | First leaf | 104.8 | 7.8 | 31 | –0.31 | 0.15 | 0.044 | 13.3 | –2.94 | 0.78 | <0.001 | 33.0 |
| Primula veris | Cowslip | First flower | 105.6 | 12.7 | 30 | –0.35 | 0.27 | 0.197 | 5.9 | –4.59 | 1.28 | <0.001 | 31.5 |
| Larix decidua | European Larch | First leaf | 105.7 | 9.4 | 31 | –0.31 | 0.18 | 0.105 | 8.8 | –3.81 | 0.89 | <0.001 | 38.7 |
| Cimicifuga europaea | Bugbane | First leaf | 108.5 | 8.5 | 24 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.056 | 15.6 | –2.39 | 0.98 | 0.023 | 21.3 |
| Betula pendula | Silver Birch | First leaf | 108.9 | 9.2 | 31 | –0.08 | 0.19 | 0.659 | 0.7 | –2.72 | 0.99 | 0.010 | 20.8 |
| Caltha palustris | Marsh Marigold | First flower | 110.1 | 9.5 | 31 | –0.40 | 0.18 | 0.033 | 14.7 | –3.57 | 0.94 | <0.001 | 33.2 |
| Aristolochia clematitis | Birthwort | First shoot | 110.3 | 9.4 | 31 | –0.18 | 0.19 | 0.343 | 3.1 | –3.17 | 0.97 | 0.003 | 26.9 |
| Polygonatum multiflorum | Solomon's Seal | First leaf | 111.1 | 8.8 | 30 | –0.32 | 0.17 | 0.069 | 11.3 | –3.86 | 0.83 | <0.001 | 43.5 |
| Fritillaria imperialis | Crown Imperial | First flower | 111.2 | 7.9 | 30 | –0.22 | 0.16 | 0.163 | 6.8 | –3.23 | 0.78 | <0.001 | 37.9 |
| Syringa vulgaris | Lilac | First flower | 126.1 | 7.6 | 31 | –0.44 | 0.13 | 0.002 | 27.7 | –4.56 | 0.89 | <0.001 | 47.5 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Horse Chestnut | First flower | 126.4 | 7.1 | 31 | –0.50 | 0.11 | <0.001 | 40.1 | –5.06 | 0.67 | <0.001 | 66.4 |
| Taraxacum officinale | Dandelion | Seeding | 129.3 | 7.6 | 31 | –0.52 | 0.12 | <0.001 | 38.9 | –5.26 | 0.73 | <0.001 | 63.9 |
| Polygonatum multiflorum | Solomon's Seal | First flower | 130.6 | 9.4 | 31 | –0.68 | 0.14 | <0.001 | 43.2 | –5.70 | 1.08 | <0.001 | 49.1 |
| Primula veris | Cowslip | End of flowering | 135.1 | 8.2 | 31 | –0.22 | 0.16 | 0.185 | 6.0 | –5.03 | 0.93 | <0.001 | 50.5 |
| Secale cereale | Rye | Earing | 137.6 | 7.4 | 31 | –0.35 | 0.14 | 0.017 | 18.1 | –4.64 | 0.83 | <0.001 | 52.0 |
| Caltha palustris | Marsh Marigold | End of flowering | 141.4 | 6.9 | 30 | –0.05 | 0.14 | 0.742 | 0.4 | –3.71 | 0.87 | <0.001 | 39.2 |
| Robinia pseudoacacia | False Acacia | First flower | 146.6 | 9.4 | 31 | –0.35 | 0.18 | 0.067 | 11.1 | –6.33 | 0.96 | <0.001 | 60.0 |
| Sambucus nigra | Elder | First flower | 148.1 | 10.0 | 31 | –0.36 | 0.19 | 0.073 | 10.7 | –7.91 | 0.65 | <0.001 | 83.7 |
| Leucojum vernum | Spring Snowflake | First senescence | 151.5 | 10.7 | 30 | –0.41 | 0.22 | 0.068 | 11.4 | –7.17 | 1.08 | <0.001 | 61.1 |
| Physocarpus opulifolius | Ninebark | First flower | 151.6 | 9.3 | 31 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.834 | 0.2 | –5.61 | 1.09 | <0.001 | 47.8 |
| Fritillaria imperialis | Crown Imperial | First senescence | 154.8 | 12.0 | 31 | –0.28 | 0.24 | 0.259 | 4.4 | –5.55 | 1.80 | 0.004 | 24.7 |
| Aruncus sylvestris | Bridewort | First flower | 154.9 | 7.1 | 31 | –0.18 | 0.14 | 0.212 | 5.3 | –4.25 | 0.95 | <0.001 | 40.6 |
| Clematis recta | Erect Clematis | First flower | 155.5 | 7.8 | 31 | –0.23 | 0.15 | 0.138 | 7.4 | –4.87 | 1.00 | <0.001 | 44.9 |
| Caltha palustris | Marsh Marigold | Seeding | 158.0 | 11.3 | 31 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.718 | 0.5 | –3.83 | 1.82 | 0.044 | 13.3 |
| Cichorium intybus | Chicory | First flower | 176.1 | 11.0 | 31 | –0.48 | 0.21 | 0.026 | 15.9 | –6.39 | 1.49 | <0.001 | 38.9 |
| Lilium martagon | Martagon Lily | End of flowering | 182.5 | 9.0 | 31 | –0.48 | 0.16 | 0.005 | 23.7 | –5.55 | 0.88 | <0.001 | 58.0 |
| Lupinus polyphyllus | Garden Lupin | Seeding | 184.2 | 16.0 | 31 | –0.61 | 0.31 | 0.055 | 12.1 | –6.11 | 2.14 | 0.008 | 21.9 |
| Hieracium umbellatum | Umbellate Hawkweed | First flower | 190.2 | 10.0 | 30 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.627 | 0.9 | –3.10 | 1.40 | 0.035 | 15.0 |
| Astragalus glycyphyllos | Wild Liquorice | End of flowering | 190.8 | 12.4 | 29 | –0.61 | 0.24 | 0.019 | 18.8 | –6.75 | 1.47 | <0.001 | 44.0 |
| Tilia cordata | Small–leaved Lime | End of flowering | 192.2 | 9.9 | 31 | –0.25 | 0.20 | 0.217 | 5.2 | –5.69 | 1.05 | <0.001 | 50.3 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Dotted Loosestrife | End of flowering | 193.0 | 10.7 | 31 | –0.42 | 0.20 | 0.050 | 12.6 | –6.03 | 1.16 | <0.001 | 48.4 |
| Solidago canadensis | Canadian Goldenrod | First flower | 205.6 | 14.8 | 31 | 1.15 | 0.21 | <0.001 | 50.3 | –0.25 | 2.23 | 0.913 | 0.0 |
| Campanula trachelium | Nettle-leaved Bellflower | Seeding | 229.3 | 9.3 | 31 | –0.02 | 0.19 | 0.913 | 0.0 | –2.21 | 1.41 | 0.127 | 7.9 |
| Sedum spectabile | Butterfly Stonecrop | First flower | 239.6 | 9.3 | 31 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.006 | 23.5 | 1.49 | 1.44 | 0.310 | 3.5 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Dotted Loosestrife | Seeding | 242.5 | 11.7 | 31 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 0.070 | 10.9 | –1.75 | 1.81 | 0.340 | 3.1 |
| Cimicifuga europaea | Bugbane | Seeding | 246.1 | 15.1 | 17 | –0.36 | 0.54 | 0.522 | 2.8 | –2.89 | 2.99 | 0.349 | 5.9 |
| Solidago canadensis | Canadian Goldenrod | Seeding | 247.3 | 13.9 | 31 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.015 | 18.7 | 1.24 | 1.91 | 0.523 | 1.4 |
| Sambucus nigra | Elder | Seeding | 251.0 | 12.4 | 30 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.613 | 0.9 | –1.82 | 1.75 | 0.307 | 3.7 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Horse Chestnut | Seeding | 256.2 | 7.4 | 31 | –0.05 | 0.15 | 0.724 | 0.4 | –0.16 | 1.03 | 0.877 | 0.1 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Horse Chestnut | Leaf colouring | 269.9 | 10.0 | 28 | –0.48 | 0.20 | 0.027 | 17.5 | –0.35 | 1.48 | 0.817 | 0.2 |
| Betula pendula | Silver Birch | Leaf colouring | 274.5 | 10.9 | 31 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.358 | 2.9 | 4.82 | 2.01 | 0.023 | 16.5 |
| Corylus avellana | Hazel | Leaf colouring | 276.6 | 12.5 | 30 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.444 | 2.1 | 4.96 | 2.35 | 0.043 | 13.8 |
| Cimicifuga europaea | Bugbane | Die back | 286.6 | 11.4 | 19 | –0.04 | 0.35 | 0.912 | 0.1 | –1.42 | 2.94 | 0.636 | 1.4 |
| Colchicum autumnale | Meadow Saffron | End of flowering | 287.1 | 10.6 | 31 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.037 | 14.2 | 0.03 | 2.13 | 0.987 | 0.0 |
| Vincetoxicum hirundinaria | Swallow-wort | Die back | 291.5 | 13.5 | 31 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 0.637 | 0.8 | –3.19 | 2.64 | 0.238 | 4.8 |
| Paeonia officinalis | Peony | Die back | 296.2 | 13.2 | 31 | 0.54 | 0.25 | 0.040 | 13.8 | 1.37 | 2.65 | 0.610 | 0.9 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Horse Chestnut | Bare | 308.0 | 7.0 | 28 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.894 | 0.1 | 0.55 | 1.20 | 0.649 | 0.8 |
| Acer platanoides | Norway Maple | Bare | 312.3 | 8.0 | 30 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.122 | 8.3 | 1.74 | 1.31 | 0.193 | 6.0 |
| Phlox paniculata | Perennial Phlox | Die back | 312.8 | 9.4 | 31 | –0.23 | 0.19 | 0.229 | 4.9 | –0.23 | 1.58 | 0.884 | 0.1 |
| Viburnum opulus | Guelder Rose | Bare | 313.3 | 8.4 | 31 | –0.12 | 0.17 | 0.499 | 1.6 | 0.56 | 1.41 | 0.696 | 0.5 |
| Syringa vulgaris | Lilac | Bare | 314.1 | 8.2 | 31 | –0.03 | 0.17 | 0.870 | 0.1 | 2.18 | 1.33 | 0.112 | 8.5 |
| Paeonia sinensis | Chinese Peony | Die back | 314.7 | 8.9 | 31 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 0.972 | 0.0 | 1.38 | 1.47 | 0.357 | 2.9 |
| Iris sibirica | Siberian Iris | Die back | 314.9 | 10.7 | 31 | –0.13 | 0.22 | 0.552 | 1.2 | 3.76 | 1.66 | 0.031 | 15.1 |
| Betula pendula | Silver Birch | Bare | 316.9 | 10.2 | 31 | 0.56 | 0.18 | 0.005 | 24.6 | 3.89 | 1.56 | 0.019 | 17.5 |
| Tilia cordata | Small-leaved Lime | Bare | 317.8 | 9.8 | 31 | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0.003 | 25.9 | 3.80 | 1.49 | 0.017 | 18.2 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Dotted Loosestrife | Die back | 319.2 | 10.6 | 31 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.709 | 0.5 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 0.342 | 3.1 |
| Larix decidua | European Larch | Bare | 326.5 | 11.9 | 31 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.258 | 4.4 | 3.81 | 1.88 | 0.052 | 12.4 |
| Salix fragilis | Crack Willow | Bare | 326.7 | 15.1 | 31 | 1.21 | 0.21 | <0.001 | 53.3 | 4.39 | 2.41 | 0.079 | 10.3 |
Regressions in bold are statistically significant P < 0.05, phenophases are arranged in order of mean date
DOY Day of year (days after 31 December)