Table 2.
Trends in 18 phase intervals, the correlation between the two phases and the significance of the earlier phases in a regression model after fitting 3-month temperature
| Scientific name | Phase | Earlier phase | Mean (DOY) | SD | n | Regression on year | Correlation between phases | Influence and significance of earlier phase after fitting temperature | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r | Slope days/day | P | ||||||||||
| slope days/year | SE | P | R 2 | |||||||||
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Seeding | First flower | 129.7 | 8.4 | 31 | 0.444 | 0.151 | 0.006 | 23.1 | 0.34 | 0.367 | 0.066 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Leaf colouring | First leaf | 164.9 | 9.4 | 28 | –0.134 | 0.208 | 0.526 | 1.6 | 0.48 | 0.637 | 0.010 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Bare | First leaf | 203.0 | 10.8 | 28 | 0.366 | 0.230 | 0.124 | 8.8 | –0.01 | –0.011 | 0.950 |
| Aesculus hippocastanum | Bare | Leaf colouring | 38.1 | 11.9 | 28 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.055 | 13.5 | 0.06 | 0.035 | 0.805 |
| Betula pendula | Leaf colouring | First leaf | 165.5 | 14.8 | 31 | 0.288 | 0.298 | 0.341 | 3.1 | –0.08 | –0.035 | 0.869 |
| Betula pendula | Bare | First leaf | 208.0 | 11.6 | 31 | 0.640 | 0.204 | 0.004 | 25.4 | 0.29 | 0.329 | 0.086 |
| Betula pendula | Bare | Leaf colouring | 42.5 | 12.6 | 31 | 0.352 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 6.4 | 0.29 | 0.153 | 0.370 |
| Caltha palustris | Last flower | First flower | 31.7 | 7.6 | 30 | 0.321 | 0.146 | 0.037 | 14.7 | 0.59 | 0.233 | 0.107 |
| Caltha palustris | Seeding | First flower | 48.0 | 13.2 | 31 | 0.485 | 0.253 | 0.066 | 11.2 | 0.20 | 0.103 | 0.645 |
| Cimicifuga europaea | Die back | First leaf | 180.9 | 12.8 | 17 | –0.776 | 0.432 | 0.093 | 17.7 | 0.18 | 0.319 | 0.396 |
| Corylus avellana | Leaf colouring | First leaf | 174.0 | 16.5 | 30 | 0.764 | 0.314 | 0.022 | 17.5 | 0.06 | 0.160 | 0.426 |
| Larix decidua | Bare | First leaf | 220.7 | 14.4 | 31 | 0.581 | 0.273 | 0.042 | 13.5 | 0.11 | 0.141 | 0.532 |
| Leucojum vernum | Senescence | First shoot | 88.4 | 15.3 | 29 | 0.294 | 0.333 | 0.385 | 2.8 | 0.44 | –0.019 | 0.845 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Seeding | Last flower | 49.5 | 14.1 | 31 | 0.840 | 0.242 | 0.002 | 29.3 | 0.20 | 0.166 | 0.496 |
| Lysimachia punctata | Die back | First shoot | 256.1 | 19.9 | 31 | 0.842 | 0.376 | 0.033 | 14.7 | 0.36 | 0.176 | 0.055 |
| Primula veris | Last flower | First flower | 29.5 | 11.9 | 30 | 0.107 | 0.255 | 0.676 | 0.6 | 0.42 | 0.014 | 0.899 |
| Sambucus nigra | Seeding | First flower | 103.0 | 12.4 | 30 | 0.501 | 0.247 | 0.053 | 12.8 | 0.41 | 0.475 | 0.039 |
| Solidago canadensis | Seeding | First flower | 41.7 | 14.2 | 31 | –0.493 | 0.275 | 0.083 | 10.0 | 0.51 | 0.480 | 0.005 |
Results in bold are statistically significant P < 0.05
DOY Day of year (days after 31 December)