Table 2.

Adjusted Poisson models: HIV biomarkers, ‘non-HIV’ biomarkers* and combined, for (a) the development set and (b) the validation set

Development set Initiated cART 1999–2002 (n =4813)	HIV biomarkers (C statistic = 0.68)			‘Non-HIV’ biomarkers (C statistic = 0.70)			Combined (C statistic = 0.72)
	IRR	95% CI		IRR	95% CI		IRR	95% CI
(a)
HIV RNA>5 log copies/mL	1.28	1.12	1.45				1.19	1.04	1.35
CD4 50–99 cells/μL	0.79	0.65	0.96				0.76	0.63	0.93
CD4 100–199 cells/μL	0.70	0.59	0.84				0.73	0.61	0.87
CD4 200–349 cells/μL	0.57	0.48	0.68				0.65	0.54	0.77
CD4 ≥350 cells/μL	0.45	0.37	0.54				0.57	0.47	0.69
AIDS-defining diagnosis	1.55	1.37	1.76				1.44	1.27	1.63
Haemoglobin<10 g/dL				2.34	1.97	2.77	1.65	1.38	1.98
Haemoglobin 10–12 g/dL				2.02	1.78	2.3	1.54	1.34	1.76
FIB 4 ≥3.25				1.67	1.44	1.93	1.62	1.40	1.89
FIB 4<1.45				0.71	0.62	0.81	0.74	0.65	0.85
eGFR<30 mL/min				1.88	1.44	2.47	2.05	1.57	2.69
Viral hepatitis				1.31	1.16	1.48	1.37	1.21	1.55

Validation set Initiated cART 1997–1998 (n =4971)	HIV biomarkers (C statistic = 0.71)			‘Non-HIV’ biomarkers (C statistic = 0.73)			Combined (C statistic = 0.77)
	IRR	95% CI		IRR	95% CI		IRR	95% CI
(b)
HIV RNA>5 log copies/mL	1.56	1.35	1.82				1.54	1.33	1.79
CD4 50–99 cells/μL	0.63	0.51	0.78				0.64	0.52	0.80
CD4 100–199 cells/μL	0.42	0.35	0.50				0.52	0.43	0.63
CD4 200–349 cells/μL	0.38	0.32	0.46				0.51	0.43	0.62
CD4 ≥350 cells/μL	0.24	0.20	0.28				0.36	0.30	0.44
AIDS-defining diagnosis	1.47	1.30	1.66				1.38	1.22	1.56
Haemoglobin<10 g/dL				3.98	3.24	4.90	2.65	2.14	3.28
Haemoglobin 10–12 g/dL				2.13	1.86	2.44	1.66	1.44	1.90
FIB 4 ≥3.25				2.06	1.79	2.36	1.93	1.68	2.22
FIB 4<1.45				0.56	0.49	0.63	0.65	0.57	0.75
eGFR<30 mL/min				1.85	1.42	2.43	1.97	1.50	2.58
Viral hepatitis				1.19	1.05	1.34	1.25	1.11	1.42

Reported IRRs are from nested Poisson models restricted to those patients with all variables complete.

P<0.00001 for addition of non-HIV biomarkers to HIV biomarkers.

All models also include two age variables (age 50–64 years and age ≥ 65 years) and a combined variable for alcohol or drug abuse and dependence. See Methods section for rationale.

FIB 4: (years of age × AST)/(platelets in 10⁹/L × square root of ALT).

eGFR: 186.3 × (serum creatinine – 1.154) × (age – 0.203) × (0.742 for women) – (1.21 if African American).

ALT, alanine transaminase; AST, aspartate transaminase; cART, combination antiretroviral therapy; CI, confidence interval; eGFR, estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; FIB, Fibrosis Index; IRR, incident rate ratio.