Table 4. Outcomes for Optimistic (O), Realistic (R) and Pessimistic (P) Scenarios after 10 Years of PrEP Implementation.
| Non-Targeted | Targeted-by-Age | Targeted-by-Gender | Targeted-by-Activity | |||||||||
| O | R | P | O | R | P | O | R | P | O | R | P | |
| Overall prevalence* of resistance | 2.5% | 9.9% | 42.3% | 2.4% | 9.7% | 42.4% | 2.1% | 9.3% | 42.3% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 42.5% |
| Prevalence* of transmitted resistance | 0.4% | 2.9% | 27.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 27.0% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 26.9% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 26.9% |
| Prevalence* of acquired resistance | 2.2% | 7.0% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 6.8% | 15.5% | 1.7% | 6.6% | 15.6% |
| Cumulative new infections prevented | 30.3% | 6.6% | 0.2% | 17.5% | 4.5% | 0.1% | 18.5% | 4.6% | 0.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Resistant cumulative infections† | 2.2% | 8.3% | 40.3% | 1.5% | 7.4% | 39.9% | 1.3% | 7.0% | 39.7% | 1.3% | 7.1% | 39.7% |
| Decline in HIV prevalence | 26.2% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 16.2% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Decline in HIV incidence | 32.3% | 7.4% | 0.2% | 25.4% | 6.0% | 0.1% | 20.2% | 5.3% | 0.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
*Proportion of cases with drug-resistant infection in the infected population.
†
Proportion of cumulative new infections with transmitted resistance.