Table 3.
Fitted and Calculated Parameters (with 95% Confidence Intervals) for the Transmission Models I–III, Contact rate β, Length of Infection, Basic Reproductive Ratio (R 0), and Peak Incidence
| γ (%) | β (bird−1 weeks−1) | Duration of infection 1/(δ + μ) (days) | Estimated R 0 | Peak incidence of I per 100,000 S | RSS | AIC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model I (I 0 = 1) Normal errors | – | 2.408 × 10−5 (1.54, 3.28) × 10−5 | 2.646 | 1.622 (1.394, 2.489) | 97.9 | 29.26 | 16.76 |
| Model I (I 0 = 1) Poisson errors | – | 2.196 × 10−5 | 2.9722 | 1.659 | 89.95 | – | – |
| Model I (fit I 0) Normal errors | – | 2.4186 × 10−5 (1.402, 3.435) × 10−5 | 2.6211 | 1.6137 (1.609, 1.625) | 16.31 | 29.42 | 18.82 |
| Model I (fit I 0) Poisson errors | – | 2.146 × 10−5 | 3.0015 | 1.654 | 55.54 | – | – |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Normal errors | 5% | 2.5203 × 10−5 (2.283, 2.758) × 10−5 | 2.5348 | 1.6262 | 125.58 | 29.6 | 16.89 |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Poisson errors | 5% | 2.3582 × 10−5 | 2.7849 | 1.6716 | 140.48 | – | – |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Normal errors | 20% | 2.442 × 10−5 (1.572, 3.317) × 10−5 | 2.6092 | 1.6234 | 106.04 | 29.44 | 16.83 |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Poisson errors | 20% | 1.9475 × 10−5 | 3.3112 | 1.6415 | 47.73 | – | – |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Normal errors | 80% | 2.4935 × 10−5 (2.452, 2.535) × 10−5 | 2.561 | 1.6255 (1.614, 1.638) | 118.74 | 29.52 | 16.86 |
| Model II (I 0 = 1) Poisson errors | 80% | 2.1585 × 10−5 | 3.0149 | 1.6565 | 82.09 | – | – |
| Model III (fit I 0) Normal errors | – | 2.4108 × 10−5 | 2.3954 | 1.5102 | 47.1 | 29.14 | 20.72 |
| Model III (fit I 0) Poisson errors | – | 2.1701 × 10−5 | 2.9 | 1.6036 | 175.58 | – | – |