. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Dec 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Am Stat Assoc. 2010 Dec;105(492):1333–1346. doi: 10.1198/jasa.2010.ap09321

Table 5.

Sensitivity to the Elicited Prior

		Scenario (T:Tamoxifen, P:Placebo)
		v^T = 5, v^P= 5		v^T = 0.2, v^P= 0.2		u^T = 0.5, u^P= 0.5		u^T = −0.5, u^P= −0.5

Treatment	Percentile	10%	25%	10%	25%	10%	25%	10%	25%
Tamoxifen	Minimum	0.79	0.50	1.18	1.46	1.60	1.80	0.60	0.80
	Median	1.20	1.50	1.20	1.50	1.70	2.00	0.70	1.00
	Maximum	1.70	2.00	1.22	1.52	1.80	2.10	0.80	1.10
	P [Y₇ = 1](95% CI)	0.125(0.114, 0.136)		0.125(0.114, 0.136)		0.132(0.120, 0.143)		0.117(0.107, 0.128)

Placebo	Minimum	0.85	0.80	1.04	1.28	1.51	1.70	0.51	0.70
	Median	1.05	1.30	1.05	1.30	1.55	1.80	0.55	0.80
	Maximum	1.30	1.80	1.06	1.32	1.60	1.90	0.60	0.90
	P [Y₇ = 1](95% CI)	0.133(0.122, 0.144)		0.133(0.122, 0.144)		0.139(0.128, 0.150)		0.125(0.114, 0.135)

Difference of P [Y₇ = 1](95% CI)		−0.008(−0.024, 0.008)		−0.007(−0.023, 0.008)		−0.007(−0.023, 0.009)		−0.008(−0.023, 0.007)