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The change in death rate due to a pollution pulse is the net result of an increase due to deaths that have been advanced, labeled ΔDdir(t), and a decrease due to displaced deaths, labeled ΔDdispl(t). Only the total, ΔD(t) = ΔDdir(t) + ΔDdispl(t), is observable. The curves are a hypothetical example with arbitrary scale.
