TABLE 6.
Predicted Number of Baseline and Excess Cases of Thyroid Cancer at Various Doses of Radiation to the Thyroid Gland in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study Cohort
| Dose category (Gy) | Mean dose (Gy) | PY/10,000 | Estimated number of baseline cases |
Estimated number of excess cases |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 5a | Model 10b | Model 5c | Model 10d | |||
| 0 | 0 | 6.540 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 |
| >0–<5 | 0.79 | 8.186 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 1.0 |
| 5–<10 | 7.39 | 0.367 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| 10–<15 | 12.31 | 0.556 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| 15–<20 | 17.40 | 0.537 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 10.8 | 13.6 |
| 20–<25 | 21.99 | 0.607 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 11.8 | 14.6 |
| 25–<30 | 27.26 | 0.506 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 9.0 |
| 30–<35 | 32.41 | 0.433 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| 35–<40 | 37.52 | 0.643 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 |
| ≥40 | 45.62 | 1.213 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
a
For each dose category: baseline cases = (PY/10,000) × 0.2019; specified for males diagnosed with childhood leukemia with an attained age <20 years.
b
For each dose category: baseline cases = (PY/10,000) × 0.3690; specified for males diagnosed with childhood leukemia with an attained age <20 years.
c
For each dose category: Excess cases = (PY/10,000) × 1.830 × (mean dose) × exp(−0.00151 × (mean dose)2).
d
For each dose category: Excess cases = (PY/10,000) × 0.197 × (mean dose)2 × exp(−0.00284 × (mean dose)2).