Table 4.
Sensitivity analysis for the imput parameters on ICER and Cost-Benefit
| Parameters | ICER (SGD/LY saved), discounted | ICER (SGD/QALY saved), discounted | Cost Benefit Analysis (million SGD), discounted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadrivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs Quadrivalent vaccine | Quadrivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs Quadrivalent vaccine | Quadrivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs No vaccine | Bivalent vaccine vs Quadrivalent vaccine | |
| Base case | 12,866 | 12,827 | 12,488 | 9,071 | 10,392 | Dom | 8.23 | 9.47 | 1.24 |
| Vaccine coverage (base:100%) - assuming vaccine purchase costs for the cohort are sunk costs | |||||||||
| 20% | 86,397 | 83,454 | 56,178 | 61,804 | 67,631 | Dom | -6.25 | -6.57 | -0.33 |
| 40% | 40,444 | 39,322 | 29,109 | 28,847 | 31,864 | Dom | -2.72 | -2.75 | -0.03 |
| 60% | 25,124 | 24,607 | 19,981 | 17,861 | 19,938 | Dom | 0.92 | 1.21 | 0.29 |
| 80% | 17,464 | 17,246 | 15,337 | 12,367 | 13,973 | Dom | 4.67 | 5.23 | 0.63 |
| Vaccine coverage (base:100%) - assuming vaccine costs are as consumed | |||||||||
| 20% | 11,524 | 15,873 | 56,178 | 8,059 | 12,818 | Dom | 1.75 | 1.43 | -0.33 |
| 40% | 12,804 | 14,417 | 29,109 | 9,010 | 11,668 | Dom | 3.38 | 3.25 | -0.03 |
| 60% | 13,034 | 13,733 | 19,981 | 9,166 | 10,727 | Dom | 4,92 | 5.21 | 0.29 |
| 80% | 13,003 | 13,241 | 15,337 | 9,185 | 11,122 | Dom | 6,67 | 7.3 | 0.63 |
| Vaccine efficacy (Bivalent base: 88.3%, Quadrivalent base: 79.4%) | |||||||||
| 70% | 15,008 | 17,237 | Dom | 10,369 | 13,894 | Dom | 6.43 | 5.31 | -1.11 |
| 90% | 10,863 | 12,326 | Dom | 7,733 | 9,932 | Dom | 11.13 | 10.17 | -0.96 |
| Vaccination costs (base: SGD$400 for both) | |||||||||
| Decrease to SGD$300 for both | 8,521 | 8,942 | 12,572 | 5,922 | 7,205 | Dom | 10.96 | 11.96 | 1 |
| Decrease to SGD$200 for both, | 4,109 | 4,988 | 12,572 | 2,775 | 4,019 | Dom | 13.46 | 14.46 | 1 |
| Decrease to SGD$100 for both | Dom | 1,034 | 12,572 | Dom | 833 | Dom | 15.96 | 16.96 | 1 |
| Booster (base: none) | |||||||||
| 5 years | 91,149 | 83,707 | 19,486 | 67,830 | 70,487 | Dom | -36.07 | -35.52 | 0.54 |
| 10 years | 47,045 | 43,778 | 15,584 | 36,192 | 38,134 | Dom | -10.94 | -10.14 | 0.8 |
| 20 years | 27,321 | 26,048 | 15,067 | 19,483 | 21,093 | Dom | 0.3 | 1.13 | 0.84 |
| Screening coverage rate (base: 17%) | |||||||||
| 10% | 12,424 | 12,398 | 12,171 | 9,120 | 10,409 | Dom | 9.2 | 10.29 | 1.08 |
| 25% | 13,670 | 13,558 | 12,593 | 9,199 | 10,552 | Dom | 7.68 | 8.63 | 0.95 |
| 40% | 15,200 | 14,845 | 11,783 | 9,628 | 10,977 | Dom | 6.43 | 7.35 | 0.92 |
| Effectiveness against viral warts | |||||||||
| 70% | 13,348 | 12,827 | 8,996 | 9,665 | 10,392 | 57,447 | 8.23 | 9.46 | 1.23 |
| 80% | 13,143 | 12,827 | 10,768 | 9,366 | 10,392 | 640,633 | 8.35 | 9.46 | 1.11 |
| 100% | 12,721 | 12,827 | 14,408 | 8,777 | 10,392 | Dom | 8.59 | 9.46 | 0.86 |
Dom = Dominated by quadrivalent vaccine