Table 6.
Sensitivity Analysis Key Variables
| Variable | Base-Case Values | Sensitivity Analysis Values | Cost Savings with Screening | Increased QALYs with Screening | Maximum Budget for Screening Program (per patient screened)* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $258.30 | 0.0414 | $3,363 | ||
| Incidence of precancer | 0.008 | ||||
| 0.003 | $162.20 | 0.0274 | $2,217 | ||
| 0.02 | $452.90 | 0.0695 | $5,665 | ||
| Probability of developing Stage I/II cancer from precancer | 0.008 | ||||
| 0.0006 | −$46.80 | 0.0151 | $1,086 | ||
| 0.05 | $1,529.40 | 0.1540 | $13,079 | ||
| Probability of oral exam among healthy and precancer patients – Screen Cohort | 0.5 | ||||
| 0.13 | $97.00 | 0.0117 | $975 | ||
| 0.8 | $367.70 | 0.0629 | $5,085 | ||
| Probability of compliance with biopsy – Screen Cohort | 0.8 | ||||
| 0.67 | $90.90 | 0.0113 | $938 | ||
| 0.95 | $436.60 | 0.0759 | $6,129 | ||
| Total costs (Yr 1) for Stage III/IV Tx | $61,900 | ||||
| $30,000 | $121.00 | 0.0414 | $3,226 | ||
| $120,000 | $519.00 | 0.0414 | $3,624 | ||
| Willingness-to-pay Threshold | $75,000/QALY | ||||
| $0/QALY | $258.30 | 0.0414 | $258 | ||
| $50,000/QALY | $258.30 | 0.0414 | $2,328 | ||
| $100,000/QALY | $258.30 | 0.0414 | $4,398 | ||
| $150,000/QALY | $258.30 | 0.0414 | $6,468 |
*
using a $75,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, unless as noted