Table 3.
Average annual cases per 1,000 people (1990–2000) | Cases Elasticity (%)
|
Computed change in number of cases per 1,000 people under under observed climate change past 20 years | Equivalent percentage change per 1,000 people | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
to 1 º C change in Temp. | to 1% change in Precip. | ||||
Algeria | 0.01 | 155.25 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
Benin | 86.53 | 23.93 | −0.50 | −8.81 | −0.10 |
Botswana | 31.05 | 1.78 | −0.02 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
Burkina | 60.99 | 19.92 | −0.66 | −3.99 | −0.07 |
Burundi | 168.53 | 14.30 | 0.16 | 2.17 | 0.01 |
Central Afr. Rep. | 32.36 | −27.73 | 10.89 | 10.32 | 0.32 |
Chad | 45.14 | 0.87 | −0.15 | −0.12 | 0.00 |
Cote d'Ivoire | 55.56 | 183.91 | −13.69 | 8.25 | 0.15 |
Djibouti | 9.73 | 143.36 | 4.63 | 16.67 | 1.71 |
Egypt | 0.00 | 132.28 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
Ethiopia | 6.19 | −46.19 | −84.68 | −32.22 | −5.21 |
Ghana | 120.89 | 34.86 | −1.85 | −7.35 | −0.06 |
Guinea | 67.27 | −12.44 | −12.25 | −62.18 | −0.92 |
Malawi | 381.81 | 10.47 | −3.08 | 81.22 | 0.21 |
Mali | 27.40 | 11.59 | −0.01 | 0.64 | 0.02 |
Mauritania | 62.29 | 21.94 | 0.31 | 4.35 | 0.07 |
Morocco | 0.01 | 313.46 | 9.85 | 0.01 | 1.10 |
Niger | 96.78 | 14.84 | 0.23 | 7.38 | 0.08 |
Rwanda | 165.90 | 30.98 | −2.90 | 2.54 | 0.02 |
South Africa | 0.51 | 3.89 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sudan | 228.75 | 29.16 | −1.34 | −18.33 | −0.08 |
Togo | 112.28 | 8.37 | −0.23 | −4.43 | −0.04 |
Uganda | 92.24 | 4.39 | −0.32 | 2.23 | 0.02 |
Tanzania | 302.68 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 1.19 | 0.00 |
Zimbabwe | 98 | 12.65 | −0.53 | 2.68 | 0.03 |
The formula used to calculate the projected cases is based on the definition of elasticity. Let the elasticity value of the number malaria cases with respect to 1 °C change in temperature be a% and the elasticity value of the number of malaria cases with respect to 1% change in precipitation be b%. If the projected change in temperature in degree Celsius co is and the projected change in precipitation is expressed in percentage as d%, then knowing the current number of malaria cases average m, the projected number of malaria cases is calculated as p = m × (a × c + b × d)/100.