Table 3.

Variables for probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Outcomes

Probability variables	Base-case	Distribution type	Distribution	Reference
Reference population *
Risk event in medium risk 65-74 years	0.0255	Uniform	(0.0223; 0.0285)	[25,48]
Risk event in medium risk 75+ years	0.0400	Uniform	(0.0300; 0.0500)	[25,48]
Risk event high risk group 65-74 years	0.0325	Uniform	(0.0300; 0.0350)	[25,48]
Risk event in high risk group 75+ years	0.2000	Uniform	(0.1500; 0.2500)	[25,48]
Usual care group
Hazard ratio usual care group	0.6150	Normal	(0.6150; 0.0089)	[14,36]
Risk of event in middle risk group	a
Risk of event in high risk group	b
Hypertension programme group
Hazard ratio programme group	0.5124	Normal	(0.5124; 0.0131)	[14,36]
Risk of event in middle risk group	c
Risk of event in high risk group	d
Scenarios of HR in programme group	0.5100	Uniform	(0.4500-0.5700)	[14,36]
Common variables
Proportion initiate at medium risk	0.7000	Uniform	(0.0000;1.0000)	[14]
Starting age (years)	65	Uniform	(65-80)
Risk of unrecognized event	0.3670	Uniform	(0.2500; 0.4000)	[38]
Risk of sudden death	0.1000	Uniform	(0.0600; 0.1400)	[37,50]
Mortality in assisted 65-74 years	0.1500	Uniform	(0.1000; 0.2000)	[39-42,46,47,50,52,53]
Mortality in assisted 75+ years	0.3000	Uniform	(0.2500; 0.3500)	[39-42,46,47,50,52,53]
Mortality in not assisted 65-74 years	0.3000	Uniform	(0.2000; 0.4000)	[39-42,46,47,50,52,53]
Mortality in not assisted 75+ years	0.6000	Uniform	(0.5500; 0.6500)	[39-42,46,47,50,52,53]

* A local reference population was used to calculate the risk reduction in both usual care and hypertension programme groups.

a) Risk of event in reference population (middle risk) × hazard ratio in usual care group

b) Risk of event in reference population (high risk) × hazard ratio in usual care group

c) Risk of event reference population (middle risk) × hazard ratio in programme group

d) Risk of event in reference population (high risk) × hazard ratio in programme group