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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2012 Jan 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Appl Econ. 2011;26(3):393–415. doi: 10.1002/jae.1226

Table 5.

The effects of recent returns and volatility of the stock market index and the daily volume of trade of the shares of the DJIA, before and after the crash. HRS 2008.

Specification [1]
Specification [2]
μ log(σ) log[Std(u)] μ log(σ) log[Std(u)]
Constant −0.085
[0.006]**
−0.568
[0.041]**
−8.955
[2.213]**
−0.084
[0.005]**
−0.785
[0.089]**
−8.454
[2.234]**

Monthly log returns
(log of the average of previous 5 days
 minus the same one month before)
0.048
[0.081]
0.335
[0.104]**

VXD volatility index
 (average of previous 5 days)
0.013
[0.151]
0.977
[0.408]*

Log of volume of trade
 (average of previous 5 days)
0.350
[0.097]**
0.327
[0.099]**

Post-crash dummy
 (October 08 to February 09)
−0.007
[0.032]
0.210
[0.256]
19.295
[6.101]**

Post-crash dummy interacted with
 monthly log returns
−0.721
[0.257]**

Post-crash dummy interacted with
 VXD volatility index
−0.617
[0.601]

Post-crash dummy interacted with
 log of volume of trade
−0.839
[0.271]**

Other covariates YES YES YES YES YES YES
Instruments YES YES YES YES

Log-likelihood −42301.2 −42268.1
N 9347 9347

Standard errors in brackets.

*

significant at 5%

**

significant at 1%