Table 2.

Natural history summary measures projected by the three models.

Measure	FHCRC	MISCAN	UMICH
Lifetime risk of onset*	33	27	20
Lifetime risk of clinical diagnosis	13	12	10
Lifetime risk of metastasis by clinical diagnosis	2	2	1
Lifetime risk of prostate cancer death	4	4	5
Lifetime risk of clinical diagnosis given onset	38	43	50
Lifetime risk of metastasis by clinical diagnosis given onset	7	9	5
Lifetime risk of prostate cancer death given onset	12	14	25
Mean age at onset	65	71	71
Mean age at clinical diagnosis	75	76	81
Mean age at metastasis by clinical diagnosis	74	78	81
Mean age at prostate cancer death	78	80	80
Mean years from onset to clinical diagnosis	14	9	7
Mean years from onset to metastasis by clinical diagnosis	13	13	4
Mean years from onset to prostate cancer death	18	15	8
Lifetime risk of PSA or clinical diagnosis†	14	20	15
Lifetime risk of PSA or clinical diagnosis given onset†	41	73	80
Mean age at PSA or clinical diagnosis†	74	74	75
Mean years from PSA to clinical diagnosis†	6	9	4

^*Onset represents the initial development of a biopsy-detectable preclinical tumor.

^†These measures are in the presence of observed PSA screening and are included for reference.