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. 2011 May 10;6(5):e14796. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014796

Figure 4. Dependence of T1D disease onset and autoantibody predictability on T-cell avidity and killing efficacy.

Figure 4

The simulations here have been generated using the scaled version of the full one-clone model (1a)–(f) (see Supplementary Material S1). Colour represents the level of (A) beta cells, and (C–E) autoantibodies according to the colour-bar on the right. All axes are in logarithmic scale. (A) The steady state level of Inline graphic after an autoimmune assault by CD8Inline graphic and/or CD4Inline graphic T cells. The black line corresponds to 30% of beta cells remaining (citical threshold). It forms the border line between clinically diagnosed T1D cases from non-diabetic cases. When the level of T-cell avidity is low enough (high Inline graphic value, dark red region), beta cells remain safe from an autoimmune attack regardless of T-cell killing efficacy. (B) Duration between the emergence of an elevated level of islet-specific autoreactive effector T cells and disease onset (measured in years). Five curves corresponding to 1, 3, 7 and 15 years for disease onset are identified. (C–E) The level of autoantibodies after 6 months of possessing elevated level of T cells (C), at disease onset (D) and at steady state (E) are shown. Four parameter regimes in the Inline graphic-space are identified from these panels (highlighted in panel (E)): A regime corresponding to (i) possessing elevated level of autoantibodies throughout without reaching diagnostic T1D; (ii) possessing elevated level of autoantibodies throughout and reaching diagnostic T1D; (iii) possessing elevated level of autoantibodies until disease onset; and (iv) never possessing elevated level of autoantibodies but still developing T1D. The white circle (Inline graphic) and square (Inline graphic) in panels (A), (C–E) correspond to the parameter choices made for Inline graphic and Inline graphic in Figs. 5 and 7.