Table A2.
Distribution for PSA
| Parameter | Base Case Value | PSA |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE | Distribution | 95% CI | Shape (alpha) | Scale (beta) | ||
| Distribution of patients by risk group | ||||||
| Low risk | 52.7% | 0.006 | Dirichlet | 100.0 | 0.005 | |
| Intermediate risk | 34.6% | 0.008 | Dirichlet | 25.0 | 0.014 | |
| High risk | 12.7% | 0.006 | Dirichlet | 6.3 | 0.020 | |
| Relative reduction in risk with chemotherapy | ||||||
| Low risk | 131.0% | 0.533 | LogNormal | 0.46 to 3.72 | ||
| Intermediate risk | 61.0% | 0.476 | LogNormal | 0.24 to 1.55 | ||
| High risk | 26.0% | 0.354 | LogNormal | 0.13 to 0.52 | ||
| Resource cost | ||||||
| Chemotherapy | $7,026 | 1,757 | Gamma | 16.0 | 439.1 | |
| Supportive care | $9,606 | 2,401 | Gamma | 16.0 | 600.3 | |
| Adverse events | $1,761 | 440 | Gamma | 16.0 | 110.0 | |
| Recurrence | $104,000 | 36,400 | Gamma | 8.2 | 12,740.0 | |
| Utility of health states | ||||||
| QALY loss associated with chemotherapy | 0.5 years | 0.50 | LogNormal | 0.19 to 1.33 | ||
| QALY loss associated with recurrence | 9.1 years | 0.20 | LogNormal | 6.15 to 13.47 | ||
| QALY loss associated with second primary cancer caused by chemotherapy | 9.0 years | 0.20 | LogNormal | 6.08 to 13.32 | ||
| Chemotherapy recommendation before RS | ||||||
| Low risk | 50.0% | 0.060 | Normal | 0.382 to 0.618 | ||
| Intermediate risk | 55.0% | 0.070 | Normal | 0.442 to 0.658 | ||
| High risk | 60.0% | 0.030 | Normal | 0.502 to 0.698 | ||
| Other | ||||||
| Mean age | 59 years | 1 | Normal | 57.0 to 61.0 | ||
| Discount rate | 3.0% | Fixed | ||||
| Time horizon | 40 years | Fixed | ||||
Abbreviations: PSA, probabilistic sensitivity analysis; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year; RS, recurrence score.