Table 4.
Fit statistics for models with different sets of parameters allowed to vary across epidemic year.
| Model: | Min RSE Models | Min RMSE Models | Schwarz Criterion | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameters that vary by epidemic year | Sum RSE | Sum % Error | Sum RMSE | Sum % Error | RSE | RMSE |
| Time Offset | 128 | 114 | 4.3 | 197 | 20050 | 2905 |
| Transmission Parameter | 152 | 127 | 4.6 | 217 | 20992 | 3288 |
| Detection Fraction | 154 | 202 | 4.6 | 221 | 21073 | 3287 |
| Time Offset & Transmission Parameter | 115 | 58 | 3.8 | 179 | 19556 | 2239 |
| Time Offset & Detection Fraction | 122 | 110 | 4.1 | 185 | 19871 | 2736 |
| Transmission Parameter & Detection Fraction | 147 | 119 | 4.4 | 218 | 20936 | 3254 |
| All | 113 | 75 | 3.5 | 188 | 19578 | 1946 |
The RSE and RMSE column values represent the models with the minimum of the fit statistic over that category. The % error is the sum of the absolute values of the % error in estimating epidemic size.