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. 2011 May 13;6(5):e19896. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0019896

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This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.

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The mean prevalence growth rate calculated as the average growth rate during the first 10 years of the CWD epidemic, is plotted against the peak prevalence reached over the course of the entire CWD epidemic for (A) density-dependent (ε = 0), (B) intermediate (ε = 0.0001), and (C) frequency-dependent (ε = 1) transmission scenarios that assume both direct and indirect transmission. Plots include simulations with aggregated (k = 0.01, 1) and non-aggregated (k = 10000) transmission risk. Prion persistence is represented by color (cyan = direct transmission only, red = 3 month half life (HL), dark blue = 1 yr HL, green = 4 yr HL, yellow = 6 yr HL, black = 8 yr HL). Gray symbols represent model simulations that were not considered plausible given the epidemic characteristics observed in Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin. Note the scale difference in the y-axis between plots A, B, and C. See Table 1 for β_d and β_i values employed in these simulations.