Table 1.
Clinical measures and outcome (spontaneous clearance vs progression)
| Clinical measure (units, normal range) | Spontaneous clearance (median, 95% CI) | Progression | Range | HR (95% CI) | p Value† | |
| Plateau viraemia (median, 95% CI) | Fluctuating viraemia (median, 95% CI) | |||||
| Number | 17 (15%) | 53 (47.5%) | 42 (37.5%) | – | – | – |
| Age (years) | 37 (32 to 44) | 39 (37 to 42) | 39 (37 to 40) | HR represents change in hazard per year of age | 1.00 (0.94 to 1.06) | 1.00 |
| Baseline HCV VL log10 (IU/ml) | 6.11 (1.79 to 7.35) | 6.25 (5.71 to 6.44) | 5.89 (5.06 to 6.13) | HR represents change in hazard per log10 change in VL | 0.75 (0.55 to 1.01) | 0.06 |
| Peak HCV VL log10 (IU/ml) | 6.11 (1.79 to 7.35) | 6.52 (6.36 to 6.88) | 6.21 (5.87 to 6.72) | 0.61 (0.46 to 0.80) | <0.0001** | |
| HIV VL (copies/ml) | <50 (<50 to 7044) | <50 (<50 to 1185) | 87 (<50 to 6847) | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 0.40 | |
| Elevated bilirubin (0–17 μmol/l) | 30 (12 to 60) | 16 (14 to 19) | 14 (12 to 17) | <20 | 1‡ | |
| 20–40 | 1.64 (0.48 to 5.6) | 0.43 | ||||
| ≥40 | 5.04 (1.60 to 15.92) | 0.006** | ||||
| Peak ALT (0–40 IU/l) | 347 (128 to 1792) | 308 (204 to 420) | 500 (316 to 659) | <1000 | 1‡ | |
| ≥1000 | 2.62 (1.01 to 6.80) | 0.048* | ||||
| CD4 count (300–1400 ×106/l) | 650 (490 to 829) | 510 (439 to 640) | 520 (453 to 619) | <650 | 1‡ | |
| ≥650 | 2.66 (1.02 to 6.91) | 0.045* | ||||
| Nadir CD4 (300–1400 ×106/l) | 340 (200 to 519) | 310 (280 to 350) | 315 (270 to 367) | ≥200 | 1‡ | |
| <200 | 1.51 (0.52 to 4.35) | 0.45 | ||||
| Transmission | ||||||
| IDU§ | 3/13 (23%) | 13/44 (30%) | 13/36 (36%) | All patients were MSM and had had recent unprotected sex | 1.63 (0.27 to 2.75) | 0.36 |
| INDU¶ | 9/12 (75%) | 31/42 (74%) | 27/34 (79%) | 0.92 (0.25 to 3.46) | 0.94 | |
| Sexual | 14/14 (100%) | 46/46 (100%) | 39/39 (100%) | – | – | |
| HAART | 11/15 (73%) | 31/53 (58%) | 23/42 (55%) | 1.63 (0.57 to 4.70) | 0.36 | |
*Significant p value<0.05, **highly significant p value<0.01.
†
p values shown represent all progressors (fluctuating viraemia and plateau viraemia) versus clearer (spontaneous clearance) groups.
‡
Indicates baseline.
§
Intravenous, intramuscular or subcutaneous drug use (crystal methamphetamine, cocaine, anabolic steroids, heroin).
¶
Intranasal drug use (ketamine, cocaine).
ALT, alanine aminotransferase; HAART, highly active antiretroviral therapy; HCV, hepatitis C virus; MSM, men-who-have-sex-sith-men; VL, viral load.