Table 1.
The ten best models for little owl (Athene noctua) survival Φ selected with E-Surge
| Model | Other effects | Deviance | No./par | QAICc | Δ QAICc | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Φ juv | Φ ad | |||||
| 30 | Time | Time | 67,171.17 | 676 | 38,644.20 | ||
| 43 | tlin | Time | 67,194.31 | 644 | 38,646.09 | 1.89 | |
| 27 | Region | Region | 67,406.39 | 618 | 38,670.52 | 26.32 | |
| 37 | Region | Region | Additive time | 67,204.43 | 650 | 38,673.29 | 29.09 |
| 91 | Time | pp/t | 67,246.79 | 648 | 38,689.28 | 45.08 | |
| 88 | Time | Trend | 67,260.92 | 647 | 38,693.48 | 49.20 | |
| 36 | c | c | Additive time | 67,290.08 | 645 | 38,702.34 | 58.14 |
| 87 | Trend | Trend | 67,465.84 | 618 | 38,703.16 | 58.96 | |
| 80 | Road | Time | 67,293.42 | 645 | 38,704.17 | 59.96 | |
| 85 | Time | Swinter | 67,313.13 | 646 | 38,718.63 | 74.43 | |
Model number (No.) refers to the ones in Appendixes 3 and 4. For all these models, probability of dispersal varied among regions and between juveniles and adults; probability of re encountered dead or alive varied among states, years and between groups of age at ringing; initial state varied among year and groups of age at ringing
Φ juv First-year survival of birds ringed as nestlings, Φ ad survival of bird ringed as adults and after first year for bird ringed as nestlings.
Effects considered: time survival varied among years; tlin survival is linearly correlated to year; region survival differed between regions; pp/t different survival rates according to dry/cold–dry/warm–wet/cold–wet/warm years; trend survival rates varied according to the three trend periods defined in Fig. 1; c survival is constant over years and region; road survival rate is linearly correlated to road traffic index; swinter survival rates differed between years with severe winter and years with mild winter