Figure 1. Rebound in transmission following mass treatment & comparison with trial data.

(A) & (B) Typical MDA model output over time in scenarios of (A) non-seasonal and (B) seasonal transmission with different baseline transmission intensities: high: baseline average annual slide-prevalence = 50% (dark blue); medium: baseline slide-prevalence = 15% (mid-blue); low: baseline slide-prevalence = 5% (light blue). A single round of MDA is carried out at year 0 at 80% coverage (actual coverage is lower due to exclusion of pregnant women). Gray dashed lines indicate predicted prevalence in the absence of MDA. (C) & (D) Comparison of model predictions with trial data [26]: slide-prevalence in 2–10 year olds in control villages and intervention villages with MDA carried out (C) every 14 days or (D) every 28 days. Blue line = average model-predicted values in control villages; dark red line = model predicted value in MDA villages; shaded areas = range of 20 simulations of control and MDA prevalence; blue circles = prevalence data in control villages; orange triangles = prevalence data from chloroquine-treated individuals in MDA villages; orange squares = prevalence data from amodiaquine-treated individuals in MDA villages.