Table 1.

The effects of the reduction in alcohol prices on alcohol-related mortality by sex and age, natural logarithmic ARIMA models

			Change
	Monthly average	Estimate	Percent levela	95% CI	Deaths per 100 000b
Men
15–39 years	37
Impact		−0.02	−1.6	−12.7 to 11.0	−0.1
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12; Q(24) = 12.29; P = 0.976
40–49 years	59
Impact		0.15	16.5	1.5 to 33.7	2.5
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12; Q(24) = 19.28; P = 0.737
50–69 years	136
Impact		0.13	13.8	1.1 to 28.0	2.9
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)12; Q(24) = 26.63; P = 0.322
>69 years	26
Impact		0.09	9.0	−3.8 to 23.5	1.1
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA(0,0,0)(2,1,0)12; Q(24) = 16.46; P = 0.871
Women
15−39 years	7
Impact		−0.03	−3.2	−21.8 to 19.3	0.0
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12; Q(24) = 25.75; P = 0.366
40–49 years	20
Impact		0.10	10.6	−1.8 to 24.6	0.3
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA (0,1,1); Q(24) = 17.46; P = 0.828
50−69 years	29
Impact		0.33	39.5	7.1 to 81.7	1.6
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA (0,1,1); Q(24) = 18.92; P = 0.753
>69 years	6
Impact		0.21	23.1	−18.4 to 84.8	0.3
Noise and Q(24)		ARIMA (0,1,1); Q(24) = 27.42; P = 0.285

^aDerived from exp(estimate).

^bObtained by multiplying the mortality rate before the change by the percentage change.

Q(24) is the Portmanteau test for residual autocorrelation with 24 lags.